Thursday, July 25, 2013

2013 ChiSox How-To Guide To Last Place

 

What does last place look like? Obviously not very good. I think the picture above perfect illustrates, all in one shot, every single thing that has gone wrong this year for the Sox. On the play above, if you don't know, Reed got the last out of the game for a 4-3 Sox win over the Mets, except, players decided to go Benny Hill on it and run into each other to allow the tying run to score. The White Sox did win this game 5-4, but it was ridiculous that it came to this and that it completely robbed Chris Sale of a win in a 13-K performance.

So what do the numbers look like? Some look awful. Some don't look that bad. Here's just a short list of the numbers I think most look like a last place team:

Fielding. Errors: 69. Alexei Ramirez has made 17 errors and still has a chance for many more. What has happened to him? Last year he was a Gold Glove snub, this year he's messing up even the most routine of plays. I don't get it. Some of his errors have cost the Sox wins unequivocally. Nobody else on the team even has 10 errors. Gordon Beckham has quite at few (7) for a guy who hasn't even played half a season, so I'm looking in his direction as well. The 69 team error total is tied for 7th worst, but only 4 errors off the worst in MLB. Verdict: This team can't field.

Getting on base. OBP: .302. The team is 27th at OBP, 2nd to last in the AL. Breaking that number down into its' basic parts, you see that the Sox are 28th and last in the AL in walks (246) and only marginally higher at 22nd in MLB at hits (833). Here's a chart of how the top three players in hits for the team have gotten to their totals of 111, 105 and 103 over the course of the season.


There is some slight mark of consistency among these players, although the most consistent has been Alexei Ramirez. Rios has come on strong at times and fallen at others. De Aza has been another player with a mostly consistent season. After these three, however, nobody else on the team has more than 75 hits. Guess who that guy is? That's right, the future Hall Of Famer Jeff Keppinger.  

Another area the Sox have not been well at the plate is in the Home Run department, instant runs. The Sox haven't hit the HRs they usually hit; only 93 so far which is good for 19th in MLB. US Cellular Field is a launching pad, and the team should be built accordingly. On paper there's no reason the team shouldn't be hitting HRs, they have the right players. The problem here has been that various things have occurred this year that have hampered output. There have been a lot of younger players getting playing time, so they have to make adjustments. Paul Konerko is getting old at 37. I hate to see Paul decline, but it's been inevitable and it is occurring. Adam Dunn has 24 which is a solid total, but it takes the next two players combined to equal that total. Verdict: Can't get on base consistently enough to put team in position to score.

On the basepath.  Runs scored: 369. This is good for 2nd to last in MLB and last in the AL, yes, fewer than the Houston Disastros. Why can't the White Sox score runs? Well as mentioned previously, they can't get on base. You have to be on base to score a lot of runs. There's an old saying that solo home runs don't beat you, and I would agree with that. De Aza (58) leads the team as he should since he's the leadoff hitter. It's not a bad total, good for 23rd in all of MLB. The rest of the team is downhill from there. You don't score, you don't win games. It's pretty simple.

Why can't they plate runners? Well as also previously mentioned, if you aren't hitting, you're not knocking in the guys who do manage to get on base. The White Sox hits w/RISP (187) is 99 fewer than the team with the most in MLB, the STL Cardinals (286). However, in an odd statistical anomaly, the White Sox are 11th in MLB in RISP BA (.258), and FOURTH in RISP BA w/2 outs. It doesn't make sense. The only way this can make sense is the fact that the Sox just don't get on base to have enough chances to score. When they do reach 2nd or 3rd, they actually are getting the job done on a semi-consistent basis.

A good way to put yourself in scoring position is the stolen base. The White Sox are actually 10th in MLB in stolen bases (64). The best team record wise in MLB is dead last with only 25 stolen bases. Again, more statistical anomalies, for which baseball is known. So if the Sox could just reach base, which they can't with any kind of regularity, they could be getting the guys in. Apparently this team can only do well at the plate when a guy is on 2nd or 3rd. Suddenly everybody is Babe Ruth out there. The Sox are also only in the middle of MLB in strikeouts, so they are making contact. But again, remember that they are last in the AL in walks, so they aren't taking a lot of free bases.

Here's what it all boils down to, in one key statistic. The White Sox are 2nd to last in MLB in total plate appearances (3658). Without reaching base consistently, you don't get to be at the plate as often. Without being at the plate as often as other teams, you have less chances to score runs. Without scoring runs, you are definitely going to lose more games than you win. Verdict: The Sox are good at scoring runners, but don't get on base enough to give the team the chances to do so.

Pitching. The overall pitching this season hasn't been bad. The team is in the middle of Team ERA (3.99), and a whole bunch of runs have scored via the unearned variety (48) due to dismal fielding. Chris Sale has been stellar, compiling a 2.81 ERA and 1.023 WHIP with 142 Ks. Sadly, though, as a product of playing for a last place club, his record is only 6-9. He did win the All Star game however, with two perfect innings pitched. Without listing them all, just know that the White Sox are in the top half of MLB in almost all pitching statistics. 

Pitching has not main been the problem. Sale, Santiago, Quintana have been good enough that the Sox should have won a lot more games. They simply aren't given run support to work with, and have taken some hard losses. They are a combined 14-17, 3.19 ERA, 0.868 WHIP. That's the epitome of hard luck, and what comes with playing for a bad team. 

The bullpen has been hit or miss (no pun intended) as well. Crain has been excellent, while others have been not so excellent. The bullpen has definitely lost their fair share of games (21), and that number doesn't reflect any games that any one came in and "lost" for the starter. It also doesn't reflect the times when a guy like Omogrosso, Troncoso and Nate Jones have come in and given up 2-4 runs in games when the Sox were trailing by just one or two. People cheered for Thornton's departure, but the three I just named have been worse. For example, Omogrosso allowed more ER in 11.2 fewer IP than Matt Thornton; not to say I didn't think it was time to trade Thornton. Verdict: This team can pitch in their starts, but it all goes for naught as they don't score enough to win, make too many errors, and don't have a rock-solid bullpen to keep leads consistently or keep close games close.

So after analyzing all of these factors that go into a last place run, this is my final verdict: The team is actually decent, on some level, but they are extreme underachievers who make too many errors, don't get on base enough to score runs, and can't hold leads/keep games close. The starting pitching is good 1-4, but they only keep us in games as a way of making most of the losses even more agonizingly painful. The team just doesn't "jell" and should be sold off piece by piece for good returns. The hope will have to lie in building a team that can start contending by Opening Day 2015.

Seriously though, just watch this clip. It highlights the entire season in just one play.