Potential Runs Scored Percentage

Brendan Bowes got me thinking about something I hadn't really thought of before.  He put out the idea that there should be a way to measure the amount of times teams plate their runners on base.  It seems really basic, but when going searching for such a simple statistic, I found that it only sort of exists on Baseball-Ref.

Going with this idea, I have worked out a formula for this statistic, calling it "Potential Runs Scored Percentage(PRS%)."  This statistic calculates the amount of players who reached first, second or third base(as the direct result of their own plate appearance), who actually scored a run while on base.  On base results include a walk, single, double, triple, fielder's choice, hit by a pitch and reached on an error.  I do not include home runs because this statistic is trying to put a percentage on the number of guys who got on base and scored later.

The formula reads this way: Runs-HR/OBP(PA)-HR.  By subtracting HR from Runs Scored, you eliminate the players' runs who hit a home run, but it allows you to keep the runs scored by the runners who were on base in front of the home run hitter.  By subtracting home runs from the result of team OBP times team PA, you eliminate all of the hits that were home runs.  

There are other statistics that measure things like batting average with RISP, Runs Created, and even a statistic called Run Scoring %.  I only stumbled onto the last statistic after diving deep into Baseball Ref's "More Stats" section.  It is apparently similar to what I have here, except they do not count players who reached on fielder's choice or errors.  I think mine is more complete, even if it only includes a few extra players on base.

Here is a list of MLB's Potential Runs Scored Percentage(PRS%) team leaders in order:

                      Rank             Team          Potential RS %
                         1             Rangers               35.9
                         2              Indians               34.9
                         3             Yankees              34.2
                         4              Rockies              34.0
                         5               Reds                 33.7
                         6              Astros                33.6
                         7               DBax                 33.6
                         8              Orioles                33.0
                         9              Royals                32.6
                        10              Mets                 32.4
                        11             Phillies                32.0
                        12             Tigers                 31.3
                        13            Cardinals              31.1
                        14             Marlins                30.7
                        15               Rays                 30.5
                        16            Blue Jays              30.4
                        17              Braves               29.7
                        18            Mariners               29.1
                        19            Nationals              29.0
                        20             Brewers               28.9
                        21             Red Sox               28.3
                        22             Dodgers               28.2
                        23               Cubs                  28.1
                        24              Giants                 27.6
                        25               Twins                 27.3
                        26                 A's                   26.6
                        27               Angels                26.5
                        28            White Sox              26.4
                        29              Pirates                 26.2
                        30              Padres                 21.1

The Rangers are the best team at plating runners who reach base.  As I already suspected, the White Sox are the worst in the American League, and the third worst in MLB.  In yesterday's game against the Yankees, the White Sox loaded the bases with no outs, and failed to score a run.  The top four teams in Potential Runs Scored Percentage(PRS%) are all in first place.  I have always felt that the number one, most important statistic in baseball is runs scored; you can't win if you don't score.

To find differences in my statistic against Baseball-Reference's Runs Scored %, mine has the White Sox plating runners 26.4% while Baseball-Ref has them plating 29%.  For teams close to the top, the statistics are closer.  Mine has the Rangers at 35.9, the Indians at 34.9; BR's has the Rangers at 36% and the Indians at 35%, since they round up or down.  After studying the chart, it looks like 30.5% is the league mean.

Brent Morel has been the best for the White Sox individually of people with at least 60 plate appearances, scoring 43% of the time he gets on base.  Lillibridge has scored 63% of his times on base, but hasn't played a lot.  The least likely person to score after reaching base this year is Adam Dunn, who has scored only 9% of his times on base.

The Padres have been abysmal in run production this year, and they find themselves way at the bottom of the list by more than five percent less run production behind the Pirates.  Slightly off topic, a really amazing statistical anomaly has gone on with Dustin Moseley in particular of the Padres this year.

He has made five starts.  In his first four starts, the Padres gave him one run of support.  He has pitched lights out all year, giving up three or fewer runs in all of his starts, posting an ERA of just 1.99.  He is 0-3 with 2 no decisions.  He pitched one game where he allowed no runs, and two games where he allowed just one run.

To bring this back on point, it kind of sucks to pitch like this for a team who can't plate the runners that get on base.  It hasn't been quite as bad for John Danks this season, but he's had his taste of a lack of run support.  That's just fine, though, because he values a Quality Start higher than a Win anyways.

Inside The Numbers Of A Terrible Stretch

I don't have to tell anyone how bad the White Sox have looked lately; that goes without saying.  I did, however, become curious as to just how bad it has become on the Southside.  As I dove deep into the box scores, I noticed that in many aspects, the Sox have not even been close to their recent competition.

Since April 13th, the White Sox are 1-10.  Their only win was a 9-2 victory over the resurgent Rays, which amazingly guaranteed a season series victory(4-3) over them.  The Sox began on April 13th by losing the last game of a series with the A's to give them a series loss.  Then they got swept by the Angels and Tigers, sandwiching a three of four loss to the Rays.  So how bad did it get in the last eleven games?  Here are breakdowns of the numbers.

The White Sox are on some pretty unimpressive streaks of futility.  Currently, they have not scored a run in 20 innings.  They have not batted a person on base in, in 29 innings.  They have not stolen a base in the last 32 innings.

Each Tigers pitcher took a no hitter into the fourth inning, meaning no Sox hitter got a hit in their first at bat in any of those three games.  The Sox are 77/358 over the last eleven, a batting average of just .215; their opponents are 101/372, a batting average of .271.  Over that span, the Sox have scored 25 runs/2.27 runs per game; opponents have scored 56 runs/5.09 runs per game.

In nine of the eleven games, the Sox starting pitchers have been dealt the direct loss, with just one win and one no decision.  The starting pitchers' combined ERA over that stretch is 5.50, giving up 42 earned runs in 68.2 IP.  Their opponents' ERA over that span is 2.11, giving up 18 earned runs in 76.2 IP.

The White Sox have left 69 men on base, 6.27 LOB per game.  They are just 13/71 with runners in scoring position(RISP), a RISP BA of just .183.  I would have gone farther into statistics but after I got this far, I felt light headed and clinically depressed.  My doctor should be prescribing me Prozac tomorrow.  I didn't even want to go near Adam Dunn's numbers, lets just say he has sucked really bad and move on.

The Sox are supposed to be "All In" this year, but they forgot to tell us that they were going all in with an ace-high hand, when everyone else has at the very least a pair.  If you weren't already bummed, surely these numbers will bum you out even more.  The good news is, since these numbers are on paper, that means they are in the past.  At any moment the Sox can suddenly find a spark and start a brand new season.

Last year, they went 19-5 when they got hot and found themselves in first place, and with no other teams in the AL Central wanting to take control, the division lead is still just waiting on the Sox.  Let's hope they can finally start picking up the pace, getting on base and plating RISP.  The starters also need to pitch a lot better and at least give the team a chance to win games.  They can still be All In, but let's at least have something in our hand to be all in with.

It's Not Time To Hit The Panic Button On Matt Thornton(Yet)

Matt Thornton blew his second save in as many chances yesterday.  He was giving up a lot of contact and the batters just kept getting on base.  However, I will defend his outing yesterday.  He came in with a 7-4 lead, and blew that but not without tons of help from his fielders.  He got the ground out to Alexei Ramirez, who promptly threw a horrible ball across the infield to Konerko who couldn't pick it.  Then he got the soft flyout to Juan Pierre, who dropped the ball.  We all know that in MLB, if you give extra outs to a team, they usually make you pay.  All five runs the Rays scored were unearned as they went on to win 9-7.

I am not ready to give up on Matt Thornton as closer.  I think he has some work to do, but I am not ready to just give up on him.  I think one of his major problems is that he throws way too many fastballs.  His fastball is a four-seamer, which doesn't move.  In 2009, he threw 1019 4-seam fastballs, 126 sliders, and 28 unknown/unrecorded pitch types.  In 2010, he threw  842 4-seam fastballs, 93 sliders, and 48 unknown/unrecorded pitch types.  Those work out to ratios of 86% fastballs in 2009 and 85% fastballs in 2010.

Now Matt Thornton has a + fastball, and it's clearly the best pitch he has.  He has never had a very good slider, which is considered his second pitch.  He stopped throwing a changeup in 2008, so he doesn't really have that anymore.  I wish he would work on developing a better slider, he could be much more effective.  When batters mindset at the plate is only to try to guess your location, knowing that your speed and pitch type will always stay constant, you're probably going to get hit hard.

Thornton has gotten away with having only a fastball in the 8th inning, but something about the 9th inning and being closer doesn't work out that way.  The Sox have three other guys in the pen who probably could ascend to closer and have varied success rates: Jesse Crain, Chris Sale and Sergio Santos.  I am not advocating for that yet, but if Thornton can't get his act together, he might very well go back to the 8th inning.  

If this happened, I would probably like to see Jesse Crain given the chance.  He has the most experience of anyone else in the pen, and this year so far his fastball and breaking stuff has looked really good.  Sergio Santos would probably be the next best choice, but it's close between himself and Chris Sale.  Both guys have multiple pitches in their bag of tricks that would serve them well in the 9th inning. 

Matt has some work to do and I am sure Coop already has him watching video and thinking about things.  He definitely needs to work on location and a second pitch.  Let's just not blame this entirely on Matt, considering he got the outs that would have won the game yesterday, and his defense let him down.  He definitely has one of the best fastballs in the league.  The very next time we have a 1-3 run lead in the 9th, I would still bring Matt out there, no question.

What I Learned From Opening Weekend

What did I learn about MLB from watching Opening Day weekend?  Not a lot.  I don't think we can judge how teams are going to play throughout the season based on one series, especially the first series of the year.  We saw some exciting baseball, a lot of comebacks and some things we didn't expect.

Starting with the White Sox, we saw a team explode to score 15 runs in the first game and 8 runs in the second game of a three game series with Cleveland.  Starting Pitching in each game was ok, but the bullpen really failed in each game.  The bullpen will need to hammer out these kinks early or it will be a long season.  The guy who seemed to choke the most this weekend was Will Ohman, who leaves Cleveland with 2 IP, 6 ER and a 3.00 WHIP.

The hitting was definitely there, at least in the first two games.  Quentin hit .545 with a home run, 7 RBI and 3 doubles and 3 runs scored.  He paced the way but others were great also.  Gordon Beckham hit .455 with 4 runs scored, a double and 2 RBI.  Adam Dunn hit .400/1/5, AJ hit .385 with 2 RBI and Konerko hit .364 with 3 RBI and 3 runs scored.  I am really glad the guys came out swinging this year, because the Sox in the past have typically not hit this well until the weather got warmer.  The only player I am slightly worried about is Rios, who didn't record a hit at all in the series.  However, it's still early and he should come around.  I think he'll be fine.

Elsewhere in the league, we see that Texas just ran over the Red Sox, the team everyone sees doing big things this year in the AL East and in the AL period.  Texas lost Cliff Lee, and that was supposed to slow this team down, but they looked better than ever this weekend.  Cruz and Kinsler became the first teammates ever to each hit a home run in their team's first three games of the season.  They outscored the Red Sox 26-11, games started by Lester, Lackey and Buchholz.  Looks like the Rangers are clearly the class of the AL West again.  The Angels looked awful this weekend against the Royals, and may end up dropping 3 of 4.

The Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers didn't look like they want to challenge the Reds for the NL Central.  Pirates took two of three from the Cubs, Cards dropped two of three to the Padres and the Reds swept the Brew Crew.  Axford looked lost as the new closer of the Brew Crew, blowing the first game of the year to the Reds in the 9th on a home run.  Over in the NL West, the Giants faltered against division rival Los Angeles, dropping three of four.  I think they will find the Dodgers pesky this year, but they should pull it together and make it a good NL West race this summer.  Their starting pitching is too good to keep losing games.  The NL East looks like I thought it would with Philly and Atlanta at the top.  The Phillies looked good in their series without Chase Utley.  Atlanta's pitching and hitting both looked great, so they should be right there all year.

Probably the best story this weekend was the Baltimore Orioles.  Buck Showalter has taken that team to a new level.  They were atrocious last year until he arrived, and he went 34-23 to finish out 2010.  They have not cooled off going into this year, as they swept the Rays and played very well.  They have good young pitching, good young hitting and some key veterans to round it out.  Let's face it though, it's mostly Buck Showalter getting them to play.  He's a really good manager and has been over his career.  I like him and think that he is definitely one of the best minds in the game.  He has some crazy rituals, but that's what makes him great.  The O's may surprise us all this year.

Ian Kinsler, Mark Teixeira and Nelson Cruz are leading MLB with three home runs, while Carlos Quentin and Teixeira lead MLB with 7 RBI.  Out of players who have played in at least three games this weekend, Mike McCoy leads MLB in Average at .571, followed by Carlos Quentin(.545) and Ryan Howard(.538).  Ryan Braun & Ludwick and Placido Polanco lead the league in runs scored with five.  Willie Bloomquist and Ichiro lead the league with three stolen bases.

Pitching stats really can't be analyzed from just one start but we have seen some good pitching this weekend.  Felix Hernandez and Jamie Garcia pitched complete games in low scoring, close wins(Garcia's was a shutout).  Matt Garza K'd 12, Cliff Lee K'd 11 and Clayton Kershaw K'd 9 in their starts.  Most of the guys we expected to pitch well did, which means early on at least, the standings will start to reflect in the way that most of us had them going.

A few pitchers faltered.  I would say the most important guys who fell flat in their first starts were all three Red Sox starters, Ubaldo Jiminez, Fausto Carmona and Mike Pelfrey.  All of those guys(minus Carmona) are extremely important for teams that are looking to not only make the post season, but win the World Series.  I'm sure that a few of these guys will get it together, but they all looked pretty bad in their starts.

You can't take too much from one series, but a lot of good things happened as MLB got off to a solid start this year.  Teams are hitting, guys are pitching and stories are appearing to make this a good year.  Can't wait to see where 2011 takes us from here.