Monday, June 4, 2012

The Numbers Behind A First Place Run

 

Mercy!  The White Sox have been white-hot lately.  After a bland 11-11 April, the White Sox picked it up going 18-11 in May.  In their last 24 games, the Sox are 18-6.  They had a 9-game winning streak, which lead the team from multiple games down and into 1st place.  What was behind that?

Let's start by talking about Robin Ventura and the new coaching staff.  The new manager has seemed to breathe new life into the club.  After starting off slow, the team has picked it up.  I think Ventura has been a big part of that.  Last year the club was just not gelling under Ozzie Guillen, and he even admitted in the offseason that he didn't care at some points of last season.  The turnaround in attitude this year can point to a winning mentality.

A great way to see this shift is in the resurgence of certain players who had not been able to find their stroke over the last year.  Alex Rios has really picked up his bat this season.  He has kept his batting average up above .270 most of the season and this is a great thing to see.  He's been hitting in the clutch, plating runners, and even stealing some bases.  His outfield play has been superb.  Another player that has picked it up is Dayan Viciedo.  He was struggling up until around May 14th.  From May 14th-June 3rd, his stats have exploded: .387/9/24 1.184 OPS.  His defense has gotten better daily.  He's having a huge impact on the recent success of this club.

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Gordon Beckham has also turned himself around at the plate and is having a fine stretch.  From May 18th-June 3rd, his stats are .309/6/12 0.912 OPS.  It's a smaller sample size than is needed to really evaluate himself or Dayan Viciedo at this point, but it is great to see these two guys performing at the level of talent we know they possess.  To a lesser degree, Alexei Ramirez has started putting up a respectable average.  Since May 23rd, he is hitting .302, which has definitely helped in getting this team wins.  Alexei's defense is a lot better this year than in the past as well.  He's making more putouts, fewer errors and with a higher fielding percentage.

Another hugely important part of the puzzle has been Alejandro De Aza.  His defense is outstanding.  He has really proven himself to be a serviceable leadoff batter.  At .298/4/24 and a .380 OBP, he has been the consistent terror on the basepaths allowing us those extra runs that win games.  He has scored 39 runs, and has stolen an AL-leading 13 bases.  Of all the players on this team, I feel he has been the most important piece, and that he is the least replaceable should he ever get injured.

You couldn't discuss this team at the plate without discussing two players: Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn.  The power of the lineup has really produced to their fullest capabilities.  For Konerko, he has produced beyond what we thought he was capable of, and he has surprised us every day.  After having an average as high as .396, his average is still a league-leading .366 today.  His on-base percentage is also a league leading .445.  He has also played very well at first base.  He is clearly an early MVP candidate.

Adam Dunn has proven me right so far, that he would come back huge this year and have a great shot at comeback player of the year.  He is definitely having a very "Adam Dunn"-like year: .222/17/38 with a .921 OPS.  He leads the leagues at both walks (46) and strikeouts (88).  His average is a bit lower than even a typical Adam Dunn year, but his production is up drastically from last year (.159/11/42).  It's been great to see and has definitely contributed to winning ways.

The thing about this current winning, is that it has been in all different kinds of games.  The Sox have won close games, blowouts, extra innings games and games where the pitching let the team down.  Since May 8th, the White Sox have won three 1-run games, three shutouts, and nine games by 5 or more runs.  That's the deck baseball will deal you all year, a collection of games that are drastically different in nature.  You have to be able to win all kinds of games, and the White Sox have done that.

Pitching has been all over the place from sketchy to amazing.  On the sketchy end, we have Gavin Floyd and John Danks.  They both have not pitched well in May-June.  Danks eventually went to the DL.  Floyd has been serving up batting practice over his last three starts: 1-2, 11.90 ERA.  Danks is expected to return soon, after rehabbing.  Hopefully Danks' injury was his roadblock to success and he will come back and find his form.


On the amazing side of the coin, you have Chris Sale and Jake Peavy.  Chris Sale was recently named AL Pitcher Of The Month for May.  In May, Sale went 4-1 with a 1.71 ERA, 35 Ks and a 0.947 WHIP.  In his lone June start so far, he pitched a complete game for the win.  Sale leads the league in ERA at 2.29 and wins with 7.  Chris pitched his first complete game Sunday, which was big for many reasons.  It shows that Sale feels fine, but also it saved the bullpen which had used every reliever in Saturday's loss.  We all had to endure that whole strange situation where he was being placed in the bullpen, but after brushing off that debacle, it looks like we can move forward having Chris Sale leading the way as a starter.

Overall Jake Peavy has been very good this year.  He's had some bad starts, but mostly good ones.  His lone loss was a 0-1, complete game gem vs the Red Sox.  His record stands at 6-1, with a 3.05 ERA, 68 strikeouts and a 0.926 WHIP.  The punch of Sale-Peavy kept the team afloat during the first part of the season and has been a catalyst for standings-climbing victories in the last few weeks.

On April 21st, Phil Humber threw a perfect game.  Since then he has seen his ERA go from 0.63 to 5.37.  He struggled in a few starts but really if you take a look at the game logs, he has put up four "good" starts vs three "bad" starts.  I hope he can get the ship righted again, because when he's good, he can be great.  He is going to be key to keeping this up all summer long.  We will need him in the long run.

Finally the pen.  The bullpen has been alright.  I really like Nate Jones and Jesse Crain.  Matt Thornton has done better coming in relief than he did trying to close last year and being all messed up from that debacle.  Hector Santiago failed as closer, but he has rebounded significantly since May 1st.  His stats since then are 13.1 IP and a 1.35 ERA.  The bullpen has been good enough, but the real gem was finding out that Addison Reed can close.

Addison Reed got the closer role after Hector Santiago failed.  Addison Reed did not give up a run until May 13th, when he was destroyed for 6 ER in 0.1 IP.  His ERA ballooned from 0 to 5.23, which is really unfair to relievers because one bad outing like this can destroy your ERA for a long time.  On the year he has 7 saves and 4 holds.  He's proven that he can pitch in tough situations and he's made some mistakes in other situations.  He's young.  Reed can't be expected to be perfect.  He took the loss in his last appearance.  I will not make excuses for him, but he was pitching in extra innings, attempting his first multi-inning outing of the year.  Multi-inning outings are notoriously bad ideas for closers of any calibur.  Behind De Aza, I believe Reed is the second most important piece on this team.

 
One thing I didn't mention above is that the White Sox have done this without much production from third base.  Sure Hudson and Morel have given the Sox excellent third base defense, and that is important, but at the plate they have given the team almost nothing.  Third base is the biggest hole in the lineup by far.  Something will probably have to get done for this team to be not only complete but definitely competing all summer.  We can't have a guy making that many outs no matter where you stick him in the lineup.  I don't think it's too much to ask to wish we had a third baseman who could just hit .250/15/60 and please put up a OBP over .325.  We'll see where the team decides to go at third.

Overall this team has almost all the pieces to win, and they will need those pieces to keep playing at a high level if they want to contend and win the AL Central.  On paper the Tigers have the best team.  In overall talent and makeup of team, the White Sox have the best team.  If the White Sox and Tigers don't play to their level, the Indians have a team that will be right there waiting to take the crown.  We'll have to see how it goes this summer but I am glad that it will be a summer of meaningful baseball for the Sox.