Thursday, November 18, 2010

Wins, Schmins: King Felix Reigns Supreme


Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners has been awarded the 2010 American League Cy Young.  This is a big win for sabremetricians, who have been arguing for years that wins & losses are probably the worst of all statistics on a pitcher's stat sheet to determine his value and rank.  I agree with this decision 100%.


Lets look at the vote.  It's listed above how many of each type of vote each pitcher that finished in the top 3 got and their complete vote totals.  167 to 111, including 21 of the 30 first place votes, in Cy Young voting is a pretty good run away.  It should be noted that not listed in the top three was Jon Lester who finished fourth.  That means 3 of the top 4 pitchers in AL Cy Young Voting were from the American League East's top 3 teams.  East coast bias?  That would be debatable.  Even so, King Felix beat the ECB.

Next, lets look at his ranks among all American League pitchers.  He ranked first in the AL in ERA(2.27) and Innings Pitched(249 2/3), as well as H/9(7.0).  He ranked 2nd in the AL in Strikeouts(232) and WHIP(1.05).  He did not post these great statistics without having to work for them by any means:  he faced the most batters in the AL(1,001).  He did all of this posting a record of 13-12.  In the past, wins have often been used to determine the Cy Young winners.  This year, it appears the voters may have actually sat down and gone over the statistics before voting.  We fans of baseball truly appreciate that.  

Wins are largely team-dependent, especially in the American League, where pitchers do not even get to bat for their own cause.  One more statistic you can use to throw win/loss out the window as an important part of the voting process is the fact that Felix ranked dead last in run support by his team.  He only got 2.91 runs per start from his team.  His team also only won 61 games while losing 101.  Conversely, CC Sabathia got 5.67 runs per start from his team.  His team went 95-67 this season, and Sabathia went 21-7, with notably lesser statistics than King Felix.

Felix finished 2nd last season in AL Cy Young voting, and the Mariners rewarded his stellar performance by signing him to a 5-year/$78 million contract extension.  Looks like they got a great deal.  The Mariners need to hang on to King Felix as long as they possibly can.  He should really be a franchise player and only traded maybe before the 5th year of his contract and only for top players/prospects and draft picks.  He's definitely the cream of the crop.  

Felix has been very consistent over the last 4 seasons.  He is 55-35 with a 2.96 ERA, and averages of 197 Ks and 220 IP a season over that span.  This is a refreshing step in the right direction, both for award voting and the mindset of fans.  Maybe we can finally get fans and voters to gravitate away from wins/losses and get them to understand the well-roundedness of numbers that create a complete pitcher.

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