Will Albert Pujols Be > Lou Gehrig??

Many people have already stated their opinion that Albert Pujols is on pace, if not already achieving this, to become not only the greatest first baseman ever, but the greatest player in MLB history.  Some other people will argue that he is not there yet and has a way to go to reach that level.  Tim Kirkjian of ESPN says he thinks Pujols can become the greatest first baseman ever when it's all said and done, but does not think he will reach the level of excellence held by Babe Ruth or Willie Mays.

I am on the fence on the matter.  I think Pujols is doing things I have never seen(Let's just leave Bonds out of it since he doesn't count), and the matter of consistency with which he is putting up his statistics is mind boggling.  With most good or great players, when you look at their stat sheet, you see some inconsistencies at the beginning of their careers.  Maybe they got called up late in a year and didn't get to put a lot together in that first year.  Maybe they had sophomore slump and didn't really find it until that third season.  Maybe that player gets hurt and misses time that limit their statistical output.

Lou Gehrig only played in 23 games in his first two years with the Yankees, and only hit 1 home run while hitting pretty well in limited plate appearances.  There is a story, which has been proven false, that Gehrig only got to play because Wally Pipp sat out a game with headaches and lost his spot in 1924.  In reality, the manager benched Pipp and other veterans to shake things up, and Gehrig played well.  Pipp did play more, until one month later when Pipp was hit in the head by a practice pitch which fractured his skull.  He was traded to Cincinnati before 1925, and Gehrig was the new starting first baseman.

Albert Pujols did not have the typical rookie season.  Instead of getting limited at bats, or having to make adjustments, he came right into the league swinging like a veteran.  He started the season and played in 161 games in 2001.  He spent time playing outfield, third and first base.  His rookie year, he hit .329/37/130 with a 1.013 OPS.  He blew away his rookie competitors for the Rookie of the Year award and finished 4th in MVP voting.  That began a streak of 10 straight seasons of .300+/30+/100+ to start a career. That has NEVER been done before in MLB history.

Gehrig's first ten seasons vs. Pujols' first ten seasons look like this:

	Games	AB	RS	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	OPS
Lou Gehrig	1232	4542	1075	1558	321	113	267	1146	.343	.444	1.084
Albert Pujols	1558	5733	1186	1900	426	15	408	1230	.331	.426	1.050

So when dealing with players from drastically different eras, it should always be taken into consideration that Gehrig played 154 game seasons while Pujols plays in a 162 game season.  You can see that Pujols played in 326 more games than Gehrig due to the fact that Lou was not a starter his first two years and the 154/162 game season differential.  This is a major reason Gehrig's stats have a shortfall here.  Still yet, you have to judge as-is, and cannot really say that we should start with Gehrig's third season when he became a full time starter.  That wouldn't be fair to Pujols, who only has 10 seasons to work with.  A statistic not presented in the chart is total bases.  Pujols has 3500 while Gehrig at that point had 2900.

Another statistic not presented that looks great for both players was their BB/K at the plate.  Lou Gehrig over this time was 806/508, while Pujols was 914/646.  Power hitters walking a lot more than they strike out are a very rare breed, and both guys are pretty much equally good in this aspect.

Next, let's compare Lou Gehrig and Albert Pujols' best season in their first ten years below:

	Games	AB	RS	SB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	OPS	TB
'27 Gehrig	155	584	149	10	218	52	18	47	175	.373	.474	1.240	447
'09 Pujols	160	568	124	16	186	45	1	47	135	.327	.443	1.101	374

As you can see, Lou Gehrig had an astronomical 1927 campaign that dwarfs what I think was Pujols' best season as a pro.  He leads him at every category except stolen bases, and they tie at home runs.  Look at the numbers though, there are clear differences in runs scored, hits, triples, RBI, batting average, OBP, OPS and total bases.  Lou Gehrig's 1927 for "Murderer's Row", is considered one of the best seasons ever.

He had these statistics despite playing alongside another player leading the discussion for greatest hitter of all time:  Babe Ruth.  Ruth's 1927 was unbelievable(and record setting): .356/60/164 with a 1.258 OPS.  Pujols' partner in crime was only on the Cardinals for the second half of the season.  Matt Holliday was traded to the Cardinals, and only played in 63 games.  He went .353/13/55 though with a 1.023 OPS.

The reason I discuss the other great player beside these guys in the order, is because it affects how they are pitched to.  Lou Gehrig batted fourth, behind Babe Ruth.  This did not allow pitchers to intentionally walk Ruth, since he had more than adequate protection.  Albert Pujols bats third, and could be intentionally walked because people believe less in Matt Holliday than they did in Lou Gehrig obviously.

Pujols lead the league in '09, being IBB 44 times, and the last three seasons has lead the league in intentional walks.  IBB was not kept in 1927, but after reading a lot of information on Gehrig's season and career, he was rarely if ever intentionally walked because Babe Ruth was on base so often.  You can see that Gehrig had more at bats in five fewer games when comparing these seasons.  It should be noted that both players were awarded a MVP for their efforts.

Finally, lets discuss the two players' post season statistics. Some people say if you can't do it in the post season, you can't be one of the greatest players. Below is a chart of the post season statistics each player accumulated during their first ten seasons in the league:

	Games	AB	RS	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	OPS	TB
Lou Gehrig	19	64	17	27	6	2	7	25	.421	.530	1.436	58
Albert Pujols	56	199	39	64	10	1	13	36	.322	.431	1.009	115

It should be noted, of course, that Division Series and League Championship Series were not around in Gehrig's time. You just won your league and made the World Series from regular season results or you didn't. So all of Gehrig's stats are in the World Series. Pujols has played in two World Series. You can see here that both players are/were great post season batters as well as regular season. They certainly didn't choke when the pressure of the post season was on. Gehrig is maybe the best hitter in World Series history, but Pujols has also proven that he can play at a high level under pressure.

Pujols had one moment that will always be remembered. In the 2005 NLCS, Game 6 with the game on the line, he hit a Brad Lidge pitch so hard, people wondered if it was ever going to come down. It is still the hardest home run I have ever seen personally in my years watching baseball. It traveled to the very top of the outfield of the stadium. That home run wrecked Brad Lidge as he would go on to give up another home run to Scott Podsednik in the World Series, not being able to shake that previous home run.

Another interesting statistic is career grand slams. Lou Gehrig is the all time leader in MLB history with twenty-three career. Albert Pujols has eleven. This statistic is pretty team dependent. I mean three guys in front of you have to get on base just for the opportunity. Since Gehrig leads MLB at this statistic, I decided to include it but more or less just because. I know this statistic is not one that you should look at to base a lot of judgement on a player. Everyone, though, will agree that a grand slam is awesome. In fact, Denny's named their most famous breakfast after it. They're just plain cool.

Lou Gehrig played in what would be a record 2,130 consecutive games from 1925-1939,; he took himself out of the lineup and was replaced by Babe Dahlgren on May 2nd, 1939 in Detroit to end the streak and would never play another game. Cal Ripken is the only player to have a longer streak of consecutive games. I do not think this is something Albert Pujols will, or will attempt to break. So Lou definitely has that over him. Sadly, as we all know, Lou Gehrig's career was cut at least five years short by ALS, which has come to be known as Lou Gehrig's disease. 

Here's a look at how the last seven seasons of Lou Gehrig's 17 year career went:

	Games	AB	RS	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	OPS	TB
Lou Gehrig	932	3459	813	1163	213	50	226	849	.336	.451	1.074	2154

You can see that Gehrig finished his career strong before ALS took him out of the game. He remained consistent and managed to have some of his best career seasons in the latter part of his career. In 1934, he had a very similar season to his outstanding and legendary 1927 Murderer's Row season, posting statistics that came very close to the same out put. From 1933 to 1937 he posted 30+ HRs and in 1938 he hit 29 HRs. From 1933-1938 he posted 100+ RBI each season. From 1933-1937 he kept his batting average above .329.

Simply put, he never slowed down until ALS took control of him. If Pujols is going to be anything like Gehrig, he will need to remain consistent over the next 7-10 seasons. This is the key argument in his contract negotiations: Will he or won't he be able to put up these numbers over the next 10 years??

Hopefully no serious medical issues shorten Albert Pujols' career.  When his career is over, if he remains healthy, he can be the all time home run leader and the all time RBI leader.  He needs 1,068 RBI to pass Hank Aaron's all-time mark, and 355 home runs to pass Barry Bonds(asterisk!), although that home run total could be higher if Alex Rodriguez reaches a higher mark.  It will be hard, I think for ARod to hit another 150 home runs, but not completely out of the question.  There will also be an asterisk by his name with his admission that he took illegal substances in 2003. Pujols has never been linked to steroids, and it is only fair to take him at his word that he did not use.

In 1999, MLB fans got to vote for an All-Century Team, and Gehrig received the most votes.  It was clear at that time that Lou Gehrig had been the best first baseman in history.  Albert Pujols has definitely gotten himself to the top of the conversation, and many people say right now he is better than Gehrig was.  This is a flawed argument, though, since most people alive today did not see Gehrig play in person.  I just don't think at this point that we can say with certainty, but there's a good enough sample size now to see what it will take as I noted above. 

We'll just have to wait and see, I think Pujols can pass his numbers, but will that make him better?  That's for fans, writers, players and managers to decide for themselves.  He certainly could end his career with the highest statistics at major categories, and that would be quite an accomplishment, no matter what people think of it. The fact that we're even having this conversation in baseball as Pujols' looming free agency is upon us is evidence that he is truly one of the greatest players this game has ever seen.