2011 MLB Season Predictions

 

Below are my predictions for the 2011 season.  Let's get it started...

AL East

Boston - 97-65

NYY - 93-69*

Toronto - 88-74

Tampa - 81-81

Baltimore - 70-92

AL Central

Chicago - 94-68

Detroit - 90-72

Minnesota - 88-74

Kansas City - 75-87

Cleveland - 67-95

AL West

Texas - 88-74

Oakland - 85-77

Anaheim - 82-80

Seattle - 64-98

AL MVP:  Adam Dunn

AL Cy Young:  Felix Hernandez

AL ROY:  Jeremy Hellickson

NL East

Atlanta - 95-67

Philadelphia - 94-68*

NY Mets - 82-80

Washington - 80-82

Florida - 77-85

NL Central

Cincinnati - 95-67

Milwaukee - 90-72

St Louis - 85-77

Chicago - 78-84

Houston - 71-91

Pittsburgh - 60-102

NL West

Colorado - 90-72

San Francisco - 88-74

Los Angeles - 85-77

San Diego - 84-78

Arizona - 74-88

NL MVP: Albert Pujols

NL Cy Young: Ubaldo Jiminez

NL Roy: Freddie Freeman

*Wild Card 

***Bonus Predictions***

No Hitters: One

First Manager Fired:  Jim Riggleman(Nationals)

I'm not going to do playoff predictions this early.  Some major storylines this year will be the Red Sox over-taking the division after some key acquisitions and boasting the best top to bottom pitching in the league.  The White Sox have secured the best on-paper team in the AL Central, but will they remain healthy enough?  Chris Sale and Matt Thornton should be able to hold down wins this year.  All In will be All Win.  The Rays will fall back a ways, but will see the rise of some new young pitching to round out their staff; most notably Jeremy Hellickson, who will be a future star.  The A's will finish ahead of Anaheim, with their young talent and nice pitching taking them closer to having a competitive team; Texas will hold off their divisional opponents again.

Albert Pujols is in a contract year.  We know that players have had some of the best seasons of their careers in contract years, and the best player in MLB should have an amazing season.  Freddie Freeman highlights a good young Atlanta team that will stun the NL by winning the East.  Philadelphia will have a good year and I know that pitching staff is supposed to be the best ever in MLB history, but it will falter only because the batters won't be there to back them every game.  I have Ubaldo Jiminez leading the Rockies back to the post season, this will really be the year he doesn't choke out at the end.  With Adam Wainwright out and Jamie Garcia not repeating his previous success, the Cardinals will slip to third behind the Brewers; Reds will repeat as Central champs.

So there you have it, my predictions.  Disagree if you like; I would be interested to read other people's predictions.  Hope we have a great season.

Why Adding Another Wild Card Works

Throughout the history of baseball, we saw a format exist, for a good majority of it's time as a professional sport, which lead to a true exclusivity of sorts. Teams play a very long season of 154 or 162 games, and at the end, only one, two or four teams make the post season in each league. We currently see a format that has added a wild card as a result of a 1994 vote to expand each league to three divisions.

After the American and National leagues expanded to three divisions, the only logical way to keep the playoff system balanced was to add a fourth team to the playoffs. Only one owner voted against the wild card system: George W. Bush, the owner of the Texas Rangers. Despite overwhelming evidence that the Rangers would benefit from the wild card system, he felt that it was a vote that the owners would look back on with regret.

Prior to 1969, the Major League Baseball playoff format allowed for only two teams to make the post season. These teams were the American League and National League teams with the two best records. After the final game of the regular season, these two teams would simply meet for the World Series title. This system was seriously flawed. We see upon looking quickly at the World Series matchups from 1921 to 1968, that the Yankees made the World Series 29 times, winning the World Series 20 times.

In 1969, a vote took place that expanded the league into two divisions. With divisional play came divisional championships, and a league championship series was created. This meant that two teams from each league would play each other for the league pennant, and the right to move on to play for the World Series. From 1969 to 1993, the Yankees made the World Series just four times, going 2-2. Since 1994, the Yankees have made the World Series seven times, going 5-2. This is largely due to escalating salaries, and the Yankees have been the most willing to set standards in contracts given to the best players in the league.

This has created a culture in baseball where we are seeing the largest disparity between the poorest and richest teams in terms of salary. A salary cap was introduced in 1994 and lead to a strike that shut down the season prematurely. Since a salary cap is clearly off the table, the best way to combat this problem of disparity in spending and revenue sharing would be to add a team to the post season. An old adage in sports is that once you're in, anything can happen.

We have seen wild card teams win baseball's World Series four times, while making the World Series eight times so far. In 2002, we got an all-Wild Card team matchup between the Wild Card Anaheim Angels and the Wild Card San Francisco Giants. The Angels won in seven games. Wild Card format has added a much more level playing field to the league, especially given the fact that there are now thirty teams in the sport.

With thirty teams, I feel that at least 33% of the league should make the post season. The NFL currently allows 12 teams into it's playoffs, which means 37.5% of the league makes the post season. In the NBA and NHL, which have identical playoff formats and number of teams in the league, we see 16 of 32 teams making the post season, 50%. In MLB, 8 of 30 gives you just 26% of the teams making the post season, the lowest percentage in all of the four major sports. With ten teams making the post season, this would mean 1/3 of the league makes the post season, a number I would be happy with personally.

Expanding the playoff format prior to 1968 would have had a profound effect on my own personal favorite team's history, which could have been drastically different. The White Sox have the second most second place finishes in MLB history(19), behind only the Red Sox(23). The White Sox and Red Sox finished in 2^nd place very often, when second place was not given a playoff spot. This lead to the White Sox(1917-2005; 88 years) and Red Sox(1918-2004; 86 years) putting together two of the longest World Series championship droughts in league history. Both teams could have had drastically different histories with the better format.

Adding one more team to the post season would require a retooling of the playoff format itself. Personally, I would like to see the two Wild Card teams square off in a five game series to start off postseason play. Then in the next round, the current format would resume.

A less likely way to deal with the extra team, would be to have the team with the most wins in the league get a bye into the LCS, while the two other division winners play the two wild card teams.  The two winners of the first round would play in the second round for the chance to face the team with the best record in the LCS.  I personally hate that idea, I think it gives the best team too much of an advantage, but I have seen it floated around.  Bud Selig has stated publically that he would support adding the extra wild card team to each league's playoff format.

Either way, MLB wins by having a more competitive and meaningful season, with better results. More is better, and more teams with a chance to win the title each year means more revenue and more fans interested in the World Series. It will not water down the playoffs, but add much needed spice into the somewhat exclusive mix.

Will "The Year Of The Pitcher" Repeat Itself?

Last season, we saw an amazing year for pitching.  There were six no hitters thrown by Dallas Braden, Ubaldo Jimenez, Edwin Jackson, Roy Halladay(two) & Matt Garza.  According to stat logs, fifteen pitchers threw over 200 innings, tying a Major League record.  Phenom Stephen Strasburg burst on the scene, K-ing 41 batters in his first four career starts to set that major league record.  Also, Neftali Feliz saved 40 games, a rookie record.

We have seen "The Year Of The Pitcher" before in 1968.  That year Bob Gibson set a modern ERA record by a starting pitcher at 1.12.  Denny McLain won 31 games, the only pitcher since 1934 to win more than 30 games.  Luis Tiant also set a major league record that year by posting a .168 BA against.  All of this was caused by a 1963 rules change allowing for a larger strike zone, which culminated in pitching becoming dominant over the following years, with it's largest margin of dominance coming in 1968.

After the 1968 season, MLB decided to change the strike zone back to the pre-1963 zone, and lower the pitching mound from 15" to 10".  The dominance of 1968 can be pointed to by these advantages the pitchers had, which MLB adjusted.  The dominant year of the pitcher seen in 2010, was not caused by anything else than pure talent and a culmination of talent coming together in one season across the board.  The only "adjustment" is that the steroid era is definitively over in large part, bringing hitters back down to Earth.

In 1968, the league ERA was 2.98, in 1969 the league ERA was 3.61.  In 2009, the league ERA was 4.32 and the MLB batting average was .262.  In 2010, the league ERA dropped dramatically to 4.08 and saw a batting average drop to .257.  Comparing this to the heart of the steroid era, 2000 saw 5,693 home runs allowed by MLB pitching, while the league ERA was at 4.77.

So we can see that last year may have been the final death of the steroid era, and we can see that batting statistics have come back down to more normal levels than ten years ago.  This obviously gives pitchers a great advantage, and allows them to be on a fair plane with the hitters at the plate.  2010 saw some great new young pitchers showcasing their best stuff, as well as veterans having some of their best career years.

The question then becomes, will this become the norm?  Is pitching going to dominate hitting again from now on?  Will we see a repeat of lowered pitching statistics and dramatic drops in offensive numbers?  I think Yes, Yes and Yes.  With all of the great young arms coming into the game last year, this year and in the very near future, I believe pitching will have a marked advantage over the batters of the league.  With the exception of Jose Bautista last year, we will probably see the top home run hitter lead the league with somewhere around 47 home runs for the next few years at least.

We have also seen batting averages drop.  We will probably see a batting average leader somewhere around .335 this year.  I think the game is better when it's less like a video game.  When you don't have guys on steroids out there on every team, you have to start remembering how to manage the game.  You have to pay attention to base runners, you have to bunt, you have to move runners over, you have to steal bases.  Every team isn't going to have a guy hit 45 home runs who can put the runs on the board for you.

The influx of great young arms will also help to round out rotations and bullpens for the better.  Pitchers like Mat Latos, Jeremy Hellickson, Chris Sale, Tommy Hunter, Aroldis Chapman, Kyle Drabek and other young arms will ultimately get a chance to show their stuff and dominate the league for years to come.  It's a good sign for the league to have all of these great young pitcher to take the game into the future.  It's also good for MLB that these arms are on all different teams across the board.

I think we will see a repeat of lowering statistics, lower run totals, lower offensive output and more no hitters.  I think it's great for the game and it's great for me as a fan of pitching.  Pitching and defense wins championships, and that's what we should see prevail over the next several years.  My predictions for this year are a league ERA average of 4.10 and a league batting average around .255.  I would be completely surprised if we saw an offensive onslaught this year.

WAR: What Is It Good For? Absolutely Something?

WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, is a statistic that has emerged over the last ten years to help place a statistical value on players' contributions to their team.  It is formulated by a formula that is both complicated and adjusted to differentiate positions from each other.  Making matters worse, baseball-reference and fangraphs use slightly different formulas to calculate their individual WAR statistics.  I use all Fangraph numbers here.  It would take up too much space to explain it, here is how it is calculated:  http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/         Here they explain in great detail how they calculate their WAR statistic and how baseball-reference's WAR is slightly different.

Now that we all understand WAR, or at least get that it's adjusted and such, we can dive into how it has worked with the White Sox over time.  I'm not an expert at understanding Notice the chart above.  It ranks the WAR(P) of the players involved in the Podsednik/Lee deal.  You can see that Carlos Lee gave the Brewers a much higher WAR value than Scott Podsednik gave the White Sox.  However, we should look at the external factors that made this trade valuable for the White Sox.

First of all, the Sox got the leadoff hitter that allowed us to play small ball, the way Ozzie envisioned.  He stole 50 bases and scored 80 runs that year while hitting .290, which are not great but were definitely enough to help the Sox win 99 games and a World Series title.  He hit some major home runs in the post season as well.  We all remember that the reason Carlos Lee was traded was his lack of effort after he had given up on playing for Ozzie Guillen.  He would have had no value for us anyways.

When looking at WAR, you can see that it really determines a club's all-time best players with remarkable accuracy.  It's not perfect, but if you take the Top 10 WAR from each team, it should give you a fair list of that team's greatest players.  Lets look at the White Sox' Top 10 WAR players of all time.  These values are strictly their White Sox WAR and not their career WAR including time with other clubs.

1)Frank Thomas - 70.6

2)Luke Appling - 69.3

3)Eddie Collins - 66.0

4)Nellie Fox - 42.7

5)Minnie Miñoso - 42.7

6)Robin Ventura - 38.8

7)Fielder Jones - 35.1

8)George Davis - 33.4

9)Luis Aparicio - 31.5

10)Carlton Fisk - 29.6

And the next two on the list are:

11)Joe Jackson - 28.4

12)Paul Konerko - 27.8

As you can see, this statistic of value has pretty much nailed the twelve greatest players in White Sox history who at least had long enough careers.  That is the one thing about WAR, it's accumulative, so you have to play for a long time to get a high WAR. 

This is why Joe Jackson(who played from 1915-1920) for the Sox, didn't have a high WAR, even though he is definitely one of the top Sox ever.  Most people though, including myself, would tell you Jackson actually had his best years for Cleveland.  His career WAR was 67.0, pretty low compared to other greatest players ever, so we know this statistic is not perfect.  The person with the highest career WAR ever is Babe Ruth, who posted a 177.7 WAR.

Most will say Frank Thomas is our best player and there he is at #1 in WAR.  Luke Appling was a great player but probably accumulated WAR over his 20 years of White Sox service to be this high on the list.  You can see that Konerko has almost snuck into the top 10 now.  His WAR last year was a very nice 4.2.

Similarly, WAR can definitely be used to judge pitchers.  The top ten White Sox pitcher career WAR are:

1)Ted Lyons - 58.8
2)Red Faber - 55.2
3)Ed Walsh - 55.0
4)Billy Pierce - 50.3
5)Wilbur Wood - 44.9
6)Eddie Cicotte - 43.1
7)Mark Buehrle - 39.2
8)Doc White - 29.9
9)Thornton Lee - 28.0
10)Tommy John - 22.5

We can see that the WAR are lower because we simply did not have pitchers for the same length of career that we have had top players.  This list is pretty well the best pitchers we have had with the exception of a few, but again those guys just weren't on the Sox longer than four or five years.

So what is WAR good for?  It's good for getting a list of best players over a career but shouldn't be used to determine the value of players against each other unless those players played in a similar career length of years since it is accumulative.  It can be used to judge two players from the same year against each other pretty well, and that is what this stat is best available to give us IMO.  That's what I use it for anyways. 

There has been a battle between VORP and WAR over the last few years.  I like WAR because it takes into account a far more accurate value placed on the player's defense in the argument.  IMO, defense should always be a part of an argument when discussing players' values to their ball clubs, as well as their value against each other.  So check out WAR, it's a good stat.  Fangraphs is a good place to get a player's WAR statistics.  Just make sure to use it in the right context.

The Five Craziest Things I Have Seen At White Sox Games

I have never lived in Chicago, and have not lived within 450 miles of Chicago at any point of my lifetime.  This means that the number of White Sox games I have had a chance to attend in person is very limited.  I have attended just six games at US Cellular Field.  I have seen the Sox play twice at Kansas City and once at St. Louis.  That's it, my entire body of work attending Sox games.  I do, however, have a knack for picking games.  It seems like almost every game I have been to has been something special or amazing.  Here are the five craziest things I have seen in my nine Sox games.

#5)15 Foul Balls By Chris Singleton  On Saturday, July 17th, 1999, I attended my very first White Sox game after a long time of waiting.  The Sox were in St. Louis for a three game interleague set.  I was excited to see my hero Frank Thomas as well as some of these younger guys they had been bragging about.  One of these players was Chris Singleton, who was a good rookie having what would be his best season.

In his at bat in the 7th inning, he managed to draw a walk.  Nothing special about a walk really, but it's the at bat itself that was crazy.  In this at bat, Chris Singleton saw 19 pitches, with every strike coming on foul balls.  15 to be exact and one of them nearly landed where I was sitting, hitting just one row in front of me.  Now the baseball-reference box score says that at bat saw 9 pitches, but I can guarantee you it is a typo that was supposed to say 19.  I've still never seen anything like that at bat, definitely not in person and not even watching games on TV.

#4)David DeJesus Loses The Ball  Mark Buehrle started this game and was just pitching ok.  The 7th inning started with the White Sox trailing 3-2.  After a few hits, the Sox were tied 3-3 with 2 outs.  Tadahito Iguchi came to bat with Pablo Ozuna on 2nd base.  Iguchi hit a mostly harmless fly ball to centerfield and David DeJesus started in then took an awkward approach toward corralling the ball.  At this point, I realized he had lost the ball in the dusky haze.  

I immediately jumped up and said "Go! Go! Go!" to the surprise of all the people around me because they must have been sure he would catch it.  Then, DeJesus made the important motion that let everyone know he lost the ball, he put his hands out like "I don't have it!" and it fell behind him.  I was cheering loudly as Ozuna scored to give the Sox a lead they wouldn't give back.

#3)James Baldwin Collects His Only Career Triple  James Baldwin should have never had a bat in his hand in a major league game.  In 44 career at bats, he hit .091 and never hit a home run.  He collected only 4 hits and only 2 RBI.  I apparently chose the best batting game of his career to attend.  This was the same game as #5, July 17th, 1999 vs. the Cardinals.  He was not pitching particularly well, having us down 4-0 after three innings.  In his first at bat, he struck out which is what he did 20 of the 44 at bats in his career.  Then in the 5th inning, the Sox bats came alive.

Wilson had gotten on in front of Baldwin who was coming to bat with two outs.  Somehow, after accumulating a 1-2 count, James hit the 4th pitch to deep right center field.  What happened was, the RF dove and missed the ball, leaving the CF a long track to collect the ball.  By the time he did, Baldwin had lugged himself all the way to third base for his first and only career triple.  If I wasn't there, I wouldn't have believed that it ever happened.  Besides accumulating an RBI, he also scored a run in that inning, a rare feat for his career.

#2)The White Sox Score & Score & Score  June 20th, 2006, I was on a trip with my friend to Chicago.  We had tickets to the White Sox game that night against the St. Louis Cardinals and I was expecting a really good game.  It started off with the Cardinals leading 1-0 going to the bottom of the third.  Then all hell broke loose.  Mark Mulder was making the start for the Cards that night, and it's one that he probably wishes he could forget.  

It will be easier just to write what happened that third inning than to break it down:  Crede doubles; Anderson doubles(Crede scores); Ozuna flyout; Iguchi singles(Anderson scores); Thome singles; Konerko singles(Iguchi scores); Dye singles(Thome scores); Pierzynski HR(Konerko, Dye score); Uribe singles; Crede HR(Uribe scores); pitching change(Brad Thompson) Anderson Ks; Ozuna singles; Iguchi singles; Thome BB; Konerko singles(Ozuna, Iguchi score); Dye groundout.  That's 11 runs on 12 hits and a walk between two pitchers.

This was the single best inning I have ever witnessed any team to have in person and the most runs I have seen the Sox score on tv or in person in just one inning.  I never thought that inning would end.  I figured if they just kept going forever, maybe the Cards would just forfeit.  The White Sox went on to score 2 in the 4th, 6 in the 6th and 1 in the 7th to make the final score 20-6, the largest run total I have personally seen from the Sox.  This offensive outburst was amazing to behold and I will probably never witness anything like that again in person.  

Immediately after the game, the Cards placed Mark Mulder on the DL, and he would not return to pitch a game until August 23rd against the Mets, when he would again give up 9 ER in 3 or fewer innings.

#1)AJ Pierzynski Walks Off On The Dodgers  June 18th, 2005 is without a doubt the best finish I have ever seen in any game I have been to.  The Dodgers had built a 3-1 lead and taken it all the way into the 9th inning.  The Dodgers decided to bring in Yhency Brazoban, who I had never even heard of prior to this outing.  He started off the inning by walking Iguchi and Iguchi moved to second on a ground out by Big Hurt.  He got Konerko on a fly ball to CF.  With two outs down by two runs and a man on second, our chances to win this game were waning.

Then, Carl Everett came up to the plate and singled to RF, allowing Iguchi to score.  Now it was 3-2.  Rowand came up next with Willie Harris pinch running for Everett.  Willie Harris managed to steal second base.  Then Rowand knocked him in on a single to CF in a 7 pitch at bat that had come down to the last strike.  Now the game was tied 3-3 and we could win it.

Up came AJ Pierzynski, and his job would be just to knock in Rowand for the win.  Rowand spent much of AJ's at bat attempting to go on hit and runs.  AJ continued to hit foul balls(5) and built up a 3-2 count, all the while Rowand unable to advance beyond first.  Then, on the 9th pitch of the at bat, Yhency decided to just challenge AJ right down the middle.  This was a big mistake.  AJ hit the ball hard to left center and it cleared the fence for a walk off home run, on Turn Back The Clock Night.

Fireworks After The Game

The stadium went absolutely crazy, the noise was deafening.  The fireworks were going off and it was almost impossible to hear Nancy playing Nah Nah Nah Nah, Hey Hey Hey, Goodbye on the organ.  The best part of all of this was that I was with my dad and even though he was a huge Dodgers fan, he was a good sport about it.  This moment will always rank above some other non-World Series winning moments for me because I was there to experience this in person.  I will never forget it, and it was probably the best regular season game of the World Series year.

Why MLB's Topps Exclusivity Deal Sucks

Two years ago, MLB announced that it had awarded Topps with exclusivity rights. This means that Topps is the only company that is given the license to make official MLB cards.  As a card collector(yes I am 26 years old and still collect cards occasionally), this really sucks.  Let's explain why below.

First of all, Topps has always been an inferior product on the market.  The cards look cheap, have little retail value and the hits are really poor.  Upper Deck, which burst on the scene in 1989, has always been viewed as the best basic card set on the market.  Their cards don't cost a lot, and they have better hits and better values.

For example, a box of Upper Deck would guarantee 4 or 5 hits per box.  At least one autograph and at least 3 or 4 jersey or some other kind of special cards.  I could go to a card shop, buy three packs of UD, and get a hit easily.  Topps hits are limited and worth so little, that it's not worth it.

Upper Deck was the standard for a long time in baseball card collecting.  They always had the best rookies, the best autographs and the best cards period.  The 1989 Ken Griffey Jr Upper Deck Rookie Card is still considered one of the most awesome cards to have in a collection ever.  To date, there have only been a small handful of 10 of 10 rated KG Jr UD RCs ever submitted for grading at BGS.  I have seen them listed on Ebay from $100 to $1,000.

A box of Upper Deck cost about $89 but it was worth it.  The cards are just nicer and again worth more.  A box of Topps has cost around $49.99 for a while, and each year you are only disappointed after buying one.  I have bought 16 hobby packs of 2011 Topps, and gotten exactly 0 hits.  NO autographs, NO jersey cards or special cards of any kind.

Even though this is a cool card, it's not a special card

The box guarantees you one autograph, but I haven't even gotten one after spending $40.00 on packs.  I feel like I got completely taken for a ride.  Topps base set is unimpressive, as they have to put embossed logos, foil and colors onto the card itself to make up for a lack of good photography.  Upper Deck cards had nothing but the Upper Deck logo and the full card was the photograph.  Topps puts a really lame white border around their cards that really just makes it look cheap.

I really miss Upper Deck.  UD was really good the last few years before it had to stop making baseball this year.  In 2008, they came out with a set that was like cards on steroids.  It was called Ballpark Collection, and was basically UD unloading all of their jerseys and autographs that they had accumulated and never been able to use.  It may have cost $50 for one pack of 5 cards, but when those 5 cards are better than the 24 packs of 8 cards combined(192 cards) you get in a $50 box of Topps, it really seems worth it.

 

This set came in boxes that contained just three packs, but each pack had 5 cards, 3 of which were guaranteed hits.  Here are some of the hits I nailed:  Evan Longoria RC/Auto, Derek Jeter Yankee Stadium Legacy Jersey, An NL Central 8 jersey card containing Pujols, Mulder, Fielder, Sheets, Griffey Jr, Harang, D. Lee and Zambrano.  The Lee and Griffey have pinstripes on the jersey.  I also got a dual jersey of Derek Jeter and Cal Ripken Jr and a RC/Auto of Johnny Cueto, as well as Ron Guidry YS Legacy Jersey.  Other UD cards I have gotten in other sets include Brandon Phillips Auto/Jersey, Jordan Danks USA Auto/Jersey, Rick Porcello Patch/Auto/RC, Noah Lowry Jersey/Auto, and Mike Piazza Retrospectrum Swatch.

         

The best hits I have ever gotten in Topps are mostly from one set: Allen & Ginter.  They are Matt Cain hand drawn 1/1(and it's a really bad drawing, see below), Joe Mauer Jersey, Adam Dunn Jersey, Serena Williams Auto and Clay Buchholz Auto/RC.  I have not gotten any hits in regular Topps to speak of in my life.  Topps Chrome gave me some really bad RC/Autos of guys who never even made MLB.  I did acquire a Paul Konerko World Series bat card, but I didn't get that in a pack or a box.  I got a rookie redemption which turned out to be Justin Masterson(woooow), and that's about it with Topps.  Topps is awful, and you really get what you pay for; nothing.

This exclusivity deal will wreck baseball card collecting to the core.  There now won't be Upper Deck, UD Ballpark Collection, UD Goudy, UD Black, SP, SP Authentic or any of the other great Upper Deck brands.  I will really miss Upper Deck, and probably won't be collecting cards anymore since Topps is just a really big waste of money and huge disappointment.  After years of declining sales, it was Upper Deck in 1989 which really brought card collecting back as a big business.

By now at least two of those sets would have been sitting on a shelf, but the only thing sitting there is a box of Topps.  Topps is working on a new set called "Gypsy Queen", modeled after a set from 1887, which may end up being "ok" at best, but not exciting enough to have me planning and saving up for it.  I guess baseball card collecting had a good run, but that run really looks to be sun-setting now.

Did Signing Vizquel Screw Up Our Roster?

On November 2nd, 2010, it was announced that the White Sox signed Omar Vizquel to a new one-year contract.  At the time I thought this was a good move for next season, giving us a reliable third baseman.  However, with two guys, Morel and Teahen, fighting for the third base position and a need for another outfielder on the 25-man roster, now I'm starting to think this is the deal that is blocking progress with our team.

The 25-man roster looks like this:  1)Buehrle 2)Danks 3)Floyd 4)Peavy 5)Jackson 6)Sale 7)Crain 8)Ohman 9)Peña 10)Thornton 11)Santos 12)Pierzynski 13)Dunn 14)Konerko 15)Beckham 16)Ramirez 17)Morel 18)Teahen 19)Pierre 20)Rios 21)Quentin 22)Castro 23)Vizquel 24)???? 25)????

After looking at this, you realize that you have two spots to plug in extra players.  The Sox will most likely choose to use one of the spots to carry an extra pitcher.  That would be really smart.  The 25th spot, then, is really the only spot we have to use between several players.  There's Lastings Milledge, Brent Lillibridge, Dayan Viciedo, Alejandro De Aza, Jordan Danks and Stefan Gartrell all trying to be that 25th man.  It's obvious that our 25th man should be an outfielder to give us more depth there.

Lastings Milledge has the most MLB experience, and the Sox got him just to take a chance.  Currently through the first five games of Spring Training, he is hitting .200 with 2 RBI.  Alejandro De Aza has a legitimate chance to claim that spot.  He has been around for a little while now and has gotten some buzz this year.  He has only hit .235 so far though.  We can pretty much eliminate Stefan Gartrell because he plays infield.

It was reported that Ozzie Guillen told Brent Lillibridge he could be an even better outfielder than infielder.  I heard from someone that he was out of options, but I could not find information on that anywhere.  Brent Lillibridge has really struggled playing for the big league club, and I don't see any way that he really contributes to the team in a positive way in 2011.  I hope they don't go with Lillibridge, who doesn't have any experience at OF in MLB, and who hasn't ever brought it at the plate.

Jordan Danks has come on strong in Spring, trying to put his name on the roster.  Although many fans believe he is just not ready yet, he is hitting .389 in 8 games played.  He is a good centerfielder as well.  Another player having an excellent Spring is Dayan Viciedo.  He's hitting .476.  He is showing that he can play right field, which would allow him to play and give Carlos Quentin days off since he is like a glass statue now.  He seems to always get hurt.  Viciedo would be an excellent option, he was a top Cuban player and in Cuba he had already played outfield in the past.

What this all comes down to is, if we had not signed Vizquel for this season, the Sox would be staring at two empty spots after adding an extra pitcher.  This would allow the Sox to pick two of these good players to have on roster.  Vizquel doesn't really help us out since the Sox already have two guys fighting for the third base position, and Vizquel is really a bit old to be playing shortstop.  

Vizquel could play second base for a game or two but his best help for the team is at third, where there are two other guys on roster.  I just feel like if we didn't sign Vizquel, we could have put together a team with a better bench, having better backups.  A full, balanced roster is a great asset to bring about the most important thing, wins.

Brent Morel is the option everyone wants to see at third.  He's young, he has flashy defense, and his bat can improve.  Nobody wants to see Mark Teahen except his dog ESPY.  He makes errors, he can't hit and he brings nothing to the team.  His contract value was a bit too high for what he has given us; it was basically a ridiculous contract.  But since that contract value exists, he will play.  You don't pay guys a lot to sit.  Omar is the expendable one on value.  I'd much rather have Morel as the starter, Vizquel as the backup and Teahen out.

This probably will not happen though, so Vizquel becomes a third wheel.  No slight to Vizquel, I think he's great and like having him but he's really blocking us from having a more useful bench.  I would much rather have Viciedo AND another one of the guys off the list than a 44 year old backup, backup third baseman.

2011 White Sox A-Z

 

ESPN's Baseball Tonight is currently doing a feature about the 2011 baseball season "A-Z."  It's got me interested and I decided to do an A-Z for the White Sox 2011 season.

A is for Adam Dunn.  Adam Dunn, the Sox newest top tier acquisition comes into the season with a lot of expectations from fans and management.  He has hit 46, 40, 40, 40, 40, 38 and 38 home runs 2004-2010.  He has put up 100 RBI in each season except last season for a bad team.  His career OBP is .381, but his last season OBP was his lowest since 2003.  Everyone, as well as me, however, expects his numbers to be up playing at US Cellular Field.  He will probably have the biggest load on his shoulders this year, although nobody is asking him to carry the team.  With Konerko, Rios and Quentin around him, he'll have plenty of help.

B is for Buehrle.  Mark Buehrle has struggled the last five seasons after pitching very well before 2006.  Mark was 85-53 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.23 WHIP from 2000-2005, but 2006-2010 he's just 63-57 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.  Mark has still managed to pitch 200 innings every year since 2001, but will he be able to find his former glory this year?

C is for Chris Sale.  Chris Sale was told by Ozzie Guillen that he will be in the bullpen this season.  He has shifted his focus to working toward the closer role.  He will have stiff competition from Matt Thornton, who I think will win out.  I believe Sale would be a great set up man, and hope that is where he ends up for now.  He should be able to lock down several holds this year, helping us preserve wins the offense has put up the runs to secure.  Apparently, Joe Mauer praised Chris Sale this offseason.  If Thornton is not named the closer, Chris Sale would be the next highest logical choice.  Fans have big expectations for Sale, but we should remember that he's still young.

D is for Dayan Viciedo.  Remember Tank?  Everyone seems to have lost him in the shuffle this offseason, but there are real questions concerning his current status.  He literally has been shut out now from playing anywhere.  He is blocked by Morel and Teahen from third, and by Konerko and Dunn from first.  He could spend some time at DH, and I have heard he is working on learning an outfield position.  Maybe he could learn right field, and give Quentin some time off.  That's where I think he could still be a viable asset, but he does not necessarily have an outfielder's body.  I will be interested to see how he will be used this season.

E is for Edwin Jackson.  Edwin Jackson is in the last year of a contract.  He will become a free agent after the season.  Will the Sox trade him, re-sign him, or let him leave?  I don't think the Sox would just let him walk, especially since he still has some value.  The Sox would be smart to trade him at the deadline if we have a need, or if he is struggling.  The Sox could always slide Chris Sale into the rotation if Jackson is not dealt for another starter.  I think our best value out of Jackson would be to get half a season out of him and get a return in a deal.

F is for Frank Thomas.  Last year, the White Sox celebrated Frank Thomas Day, when they retired his number and placed his picture on the outfield wall of honor.  This year, they will complete the ceremony by unveiling the Frank Thomas statue in the outfield monument section this summer.  The only thing that will be left for Frank is getting a speech prepared for the 2016 Hall Of Fame ceremony(because nobody makes it first ballot apparently).

G is for Gavin Floyd.  Is 2011 finally the year Gavin Floyd will finally return to his 2008 form?  That year he was 17-8 with a 3.84 ERA in 206.1 IP.  The last two seasons he's 21-24 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  I think if Gavin could ever pitch consistently and reach his potential he could be an 18-20 game winner with a mid 3's ERA and a 1.17ish WHIP.  With all this offense behind him, hopefully he'll have a good and winning season for a change.

H is for Home Runs.  Ozzie asked for a 2005 team that could hit and run.  He has Juan Pierre this year at the top of the lineup, but this team is mostly built on hitting.  More specifically it's built on hitting home runs.  How many home runs will be hit this season?  In 2006, the Sox hit 236 home runs which was tops in MLB.  In 2010, the Sox hit 177 home runs, and will now have a legitimate batter at DH with Adam Dunn.  I would put money on the fact that the Sox will hit over 200 home runs, probably over 220.

I is for Ifs.  There is a lot going on with the White Sox this year and a lot of expecations.  There are also a lot of "ifs" involved with that.  The White Sox will succeed "if" certain factors happen.  I think the three biggest Ifs are: "If Peavy is healthy" "If more people than PK and Dunn can contribute" and "If the bullpen can hold wins."  I think the most important one is Peavy.  If Peavy can come back healthy and pitch 150 innings, that will be enough, I believe, to put us over the top.  I don't want Peavy to come back too early though, and risk getting re-injured.  I hope he is not rushing his come back because that won't help us as much as he thinks it will.  I'd rather have a healthy Jake for August and September.

J is for Jerry Reinsdorf.  2011 marks the thirtieth year Jerry Reinsdorf has owned the team.  He purchased the team for a mere $19 million.  Jerry has built the club up from shambles and turned them into a semi-winning club.  The Sox have made the post season five times during his tenure and won a World Series, and the team has finished with winning records a lot of other years.  The Sox have seen a slew of decent free agent signings, keeping home grown talent, and a new ballpark over his tenure.  Thanks Jerry.

K is for Ks.  More specifically batter strikeouts.  The White Sox struck out 922 times last season, the second fewest in MLB.  With the addition of Adam Dunn, this is sure to go up.  Dunn struck out 199 times last season by himself.  I am on the fence about whether or not I think Ks at the plate directly leads to scoring fewer runs, but it certainly puts a hamper on your OBP.  However, last season the Sox OBP was not in the top 10 despite the 2nd lowest K total.  If Dunn and others can be productive in their non-K at bats, Ks should not directly affect the Sox ability to score runs and win games.

L is for Left Handed Pitching.  The White Sox have five left handed pitchers, who are all key to the success of the 2011 campaign.  Three of these pitchers(Thornton, Sale and Ohman) are in the bullpen that will be as big a part of success or failure as any part of the team.  It will be nice to have a few left handers to bring in to games in the later innings, and the idea that we could go L-R-L-R in our rotation is always a nice mix.  Left handed pitching will definitely be key to the outcome of the season.

M is for Morel.  Can Brent Morel win the third base starting job over Mark Teahen?  Ozzie has told the media that the position is not decided.  Last year, Mark Teahen was hurt, and when he played he was not very good at the plate.  His line last year was .258/4/25 with a .709 OPS.  He started 49 games at 3B last season and made 10 errors in 124 chances.  His UZR last year was -9.8 at 3B and career is -38.4.  I don't think we have a large enough sample size of what Brent Morel can do in a full Major League season but I would like him to get a chance.  I have little faith in Mark Teahen to be an important cog in the machine.  We can't forget about Omar Vizquel, who is also a viable third baseman as he proved last season, but will find himself in a replacement or day-off role this year.

N is for No Hitter.  Will the Sox throw a no hitter this year?  Mark Buehrle has thrown the last two, and he threw them in the last two odd seasons(2007, 2009).  It is 2011, so does this mean we get to see more Buehrle magic?  The last three White Sox no hitters were thrown in odd years and 10 of the Sox no hitters were thrown in odd years.  I don't believe in superstition or that there is any cause/effect in baseball but statistically it just looks good on paper.  I guess we can chalk up a Mark Buehrle no hitter this year.(Just wishful thinking)

O is for Oney/Ozzie.   Oney Guillen has opened his mouth this offseason about Bobby Jenks, and said some really harsh comments that showed little to no class.  After the story had finally died down, Bobby revamped statements and Ozzie opened his mouth on the situation recently.  Can Ozzie and his family stay behind the scenes and keep the drama to a minimum after the season kicks into high gear?  This will be a big question and Sox fans hope the answer is emphatically YES.  We're all tired of the drama.

P is for Paulie.  Paul Konerko is coming off a great season, and people think he played up because it was a contract year.  It's true that in 2005, Konerko had a MVP type season(.283/40/100) in a contract year.  However, he has also had other great years, including 2006, the year after signing a new contract with the Sox.  That year he hit .313/35/113 with a .932 OPS.  There's no reason to believe he won't put up similar numbers to his 2010 season this year.  We'll have to see what kind of production he gives the Sox.

Q is for Quentin.  Carlos Quentin's mystery 87 RBI last season didn't change a lot of people's opinions that he was still having a down but slightly better year than 2009.  He has not returned to his pre-injury 2008 MVP form over the last two seasons, as his numbers are down across the board.  Will Carlos have some of the pressure taken off now that Dunn is in town?  If so, maybe he will calm down at the plate and not try to swing so much.  "Solid" numbers I could see coming from Quentin this year are .270/27/90 with an .850 OPS.  I don't think it's too much to ask for there, and he should have some RBI opportunities batting behind PK and Dunn, one of which should be on base a lot in front of him at least.

R is for Runs Scored.  The White Sox finished 7th in runs scored last year in the American League.  I would have liked to finish a little higher.  752 runs is a good number but this year we can push that to 800-850.  The only team in the Top 5 who did not make the post season was Boston.  It's not too simple of an idea to state that scoring runs wins games.  If the Sox want to make the post season, they will have to find their way to the top of the runs scored category at least in the AL Central.

S is for Sergio Santos.  Sergio Santos was one of the nice surprises of the 2010 season.  He pitched 51.2 IP with a 2-2 record and 2.92 ERA.  He had 56 Ks and 26 BBs.  He had a WHIP over 1.50 that he'll need to get down, but he has electric stuff.  He sports a fastball, slider and changeup, and has the opportunity to become a late inning specialist.  He is in the mix for closer with a slight outside chance at landing the role.  Pretty good career change, moving from shortstop to pitcher in the Major Leagues.

T is for Thornton.  The most likely choice to close is Matt Thornton.  He has the experience and has been on the White Sox for a while now.  He sports a high 90's fastball and a complimentary slider that lead to him being very productive last season.  After struggling in the All Star Game and then his first few appearances post-ASG, he really came back and pitched well.  I think he is clearly our best choice to be a lights out closer with the departure of Bobby Jenks.

U is for US Cellular Field.  There are new renovations set to be in place for the 2011 season at US Cellular Field.  One is the new multi-tiered restaurant that will be located outside of Gate 5, which will be called Comiskey's.  The Sox say it will serve a variety of food and multi-leveled.  It will be open for the entire baseball season, and in the future will be open year round.  There has also been a new line added to the transit system to bring people to the park, which is always a good thing.

V is for Vizquel.  Omar had a really nice 2010, and was our best option at third.  He put up the line of .276/2/30 and made just 3 errors in 144 chances.  He made some great plays in the field.  He will be pushed into a fill in, bench player role this year.  When he plays this season, he will be the only player in MLB playing who is from the 1980s.  He's a first ballot hall of famer in my mind, and is really going to be more of a coach than a player this year.  The younger players better hang on his every word, because he is one of the best infielders I have ever seen.

W is for Will Ohman.  One of the new relief pitchers on the Sox this year is Will Ohman.  He's a strong left handed specialist, with lefties having a lot of trouble with Ohman over the years.  Vs LHB he sports a low .208 BAA and .298 OBP allowed.  His K/BB is 2.52.  His numbers are much higher vs RHB.  I like having him but we know his limitations.  It's nice to have a guy who can come in and get out a tough LHB late though.

X is for XBH.  Last season, the White Sox finished 4th at home runs but 10th at triples and 13th at doubles.  That's 9th in the American League at XBH.  Extra Base Hits drive in runs and put players in position to score runs.  If we want to up our runs scored total, we're going to need to get more extra base hits.  Having Adam Dunn will help out, and getting better production down the stretch from Alex Rios should also lead to more XBH and higher run totals.

Y is for Youth.  If you haven't noticed, the White Sox have gotten a lot younger over the last three seasons.  After signing players like Alexei Ramirez and Dayan Viciedo, trading for Danks and Floyd, and drafting solid young talented players like Beckham and Chris Sale, the average age of the team's 40-man roster is 27.47 this year.  27 is generally around the age that players start their prime years.  Let's hope many players find their prime this year.  These guys are really the key to the future that we have to bank on for at least the next 3-5 seasons.  If these guys somehow didn't work out, we'd be left rebuilding completely.  I don't want to see that happen, and it won't, because I have faith in these guys to produce winning results.

Z is for Zero.  Zero, the number of times the White Sox got a hit on a 3-0 count last season.  The White Sox had 120 plate appearances with a 3-0 count last season and took 118 walks.  That kind of patience is good but this also means that we definitely do not have the green light from Ozzie to swing.  That is an insane OBP in that count of .992.  This of course, is when the at bat ended on the fourth pitch.  When the at bat continued beyond 3-0 when the fourth pitch did not end the at bat, the Sox hit .317 with a 1.295 OPS.  I don't know if I'd rather have a guy with power swinging on 3-0 or not but it definitely doesn't hurt to take walks in the situation.  OBP will be important this year in the run scoring process.  Patience at the plate will certainly help with that.