Will "The Year Of The Pitcher" Repeat Itself?

Last season, we saw an amazing year for pitching.  There were six no hitters thrown by Dallas Braden, Ubaldo Jimenez, Edwin Jackson, Roy Halladay(two) & Matt Garza.  According to stat logs, fifteen pitchers threw over 200 innings, tying a Major League record.  Phenom Stephen Strasburg burst on the scene, K-ing 41 batters in his first four career starts to set that major league record.  Also, Neftali Feliz saved 40 games, a rookie record.

We have seen "The Year Of The Pitcher" before in 1968.  That year Bob Gibson set a modern ERA record by a starting pitcher at 1.12.  Denny McLain won 31 games, the only pitcher since 1934 to win more than 30 games.  Luis Tiant also set a major league record that year by posting a .168 BA against.  All of this was caused by a 1963 rules change allowing for a larger strike zone, which culminated in pitching becoming dominant over the following years, with it's largest margin of dominance coming in 1968.

After the 1968 season, MLB decided to change the strike zone back to the pre-1963 zone, and lower the pitching mound from 15" to 10".  The dominance of 1968 can be pointed to by these advantages the pitchers had, which MLB adjusted.  The dominant year of the pitcher seen in 2010, was not caused by anything else than pure talent and a culmination of talent coming together in one season across the board.  The only "adjustment" is that the steroid era is definitively over in large part, bringing hitters back down to Earth.

In 1968, the league ERA was 2.98, in 1969 the league ERA was 3.61.  In 2009, the league ERA was 4.32 and the MLB batting average was .262.  In 2010, the league ERA dropped dramatically to 4.08 and saw a batting average drop to .257.  Comparing this to the heart of the steroid era, 2000 saw 5,693 home runs allowed by MLB pitching, while the league ERA was at 4.77.

So we can see that last year may have been the final death of the steroid era, and we can see that batting statistics have come back down to more normal levels than ten years ago.  This obviously gives pitchers a great advantage, and allows them to be on a fair plane with the hitters at the plate.  2010 saw some great new young pitchers showcasing their best stuff, as well as veterans having some of their best career years.

The question then becomes, will this become the norm?  Is pitching going to dominate hitting again from now on?  Will we see a repeat of lowered pitching statistics and dramatic drops in offensive numbers?  I think Yes, Yes and Yes.  With all of the great young arms coming into the game last year, this year and in the very near future, I believe pitching will have a marked advantage over the batters of the league.  With the exception of Jose Bautista last year, we will probably see the top home run hitter lead the league with somewhere around 47 home runs for the next few years at least.

We have also seen batting averages drop.  We will probably see a batting average leader somewhere around .335 this year.  I think the game is better when it's less like a video game.  When you don't have guys on steroids out there on every team, you have to start remembering how to manage the game.  You have to pay attention to base runners, you have to bunt, you have to move runners over, you have to steal bases.  Every team isn't going to have a guy hit 45 home runs who can put the runs on the board for you.

The influx of great young arms will also help to round out rotations and bullpens for the better.  Pitchers like Mat Latos, Jeremy Hellickson, Chris Sale, Tommy Hunter, Aroldis Chapman, Kyle Drabek and other young arms will ultimately get a chance to show their stuff and dominate the league for years to come.  It's a good sign for the league to have all of these great young pitcher to take the game into the future.  It's also good for MLB that these arms are on all different teams across the board.

I think we will see a repeat of lowering statistics, lower run totals, lower offensive output and more no hitters.  I think it's great for the game and it's great for me as a fan of pitching.  Pitching and defense wins championships, and that's what we should see prevail over the next several years.  My predictions for this year are a league ERA average of 4.10 and a league batting average around .255.  I would be completely surprised if we saw an offensive onslaught this year.