Let's Not Forget Trevor Hoffman

On 9/19/2011, Mariano Rivera passed Trevor Hoffman for most saves by a closer in a career at 602.  Hoffman stands second, now, at 601.  Most people have been saying for a while that Mariano is the best closer of all time, and maybe they are right.  However, it should not be forgotten by anyone that Trevor Hoffman is right there, in a solid #2 spot; and #3 is not even in the same ballpark as these two.

Trevor Hoffman began his career with the Reds, was re-drafted by the Marlins in the 1992 expansion draft, and the Marlins then traded Hoffman to San Diego during his rookie season.  You can't really say that the Marlins got a raw deal, since they acquired Gary Sheffield in the trade and he lead them to a World Series title in 1997.  Hoffman became the closer for the Padres in 1994 and was injured that offseason playing beach sports during the strike.

He had to have rotator cuff surgery, which caused him to work and focus more adding a change up to his repertoire.  To me, this change up was the best that I ever personally saw, and have heard many baseball analysts who have been around longer than me state that it is in fact the best change up ever thrown.

Here is a close up of Hoffman about to throw his amazing change up.  It's essentially a palm ball, which is a more old-school kind of change up.  Most people today throw a circle change, but the palm ball can be very effective if you know how to use it.  This pitch allows you to throw virtually the same arm angle as your fastball and with the same arm force as your fastball while taking 10-15 mph off your velocity and getting more drop.  The chart below is from 2008, showing the difference between where his fastball and change up left his hand and what it did afterward.

As you can see, he started his fastball and change up from exactly the same place and the change up had significant drop upon approach to the plate.  His change up was nearly unhittable.  He is 9th all time in K/BB career at 3.69/1.  He got many of his 1133 strikeouts via the change.  After his surgery, Hoffman's fastball dropped from around 95 to around 85 mph at best.  His change up ranged from 72-76 mph.  With so many people looking ridiculous swinging and missing the change up, his teammates began to call it the Bugs Bunny Pitch, after the famous scene in Baseball Bugs in which many people strike out on the same single pitch.

There were others who trotted out to music prior to closing out games before 1998, but I personally believe the explosion of having "entrance music" for every closer in baseball began with Hoffman.  Trevor began running out to AC/DC's Hell's Bells that year.  If you look at his career, he has actually had a better save percentage at home, and after the Hell's Bells era began.  Whether you think there is a "Hell's Bells Effect" on Hoffman or not, the numbers certainly add validity to the debate.

The Hell's Bells Effect

Hoffman had many great seasons, but his two greatest were 1998 and 2006.  In both years he finished second in Cy Young voting.  His better of those two seasons was clearly 1998.  That year he posted 53 saves to lead the league, while posting a 1.48 ERA(265 ERA+) and a 0.849 WHIP.  His 5.1 H/9 is an incredible statistic.  He finished 7th in MVP voting that year.

In 2006, Hoffman again lead the league in saves with 46.  He posted a 2.14 ERA and a 0.968 WHIP.  He finished second in Cy Young voting again, and 10th in MVP voting.  Over his career he has been named an All Star seven times.  He has finished in the top 10 in Cy Young Voting 4 times.

In limited post season appearances, he put up decent but not legendary numbers.  He posted a 1-2 record, 3.46 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 4 saves.  He only has 13 innings of post season work in his career though.  The Padres were not exactly the best team in the NL for most of his career.  He did have a chance to pitch in the World Series, but only entered one game and gave up a home run in his second inning of work against the Yankees.  The Padres would eventually lose the Series.

For his career numbers, he went 61-75 in decisions, with a solid 2.87 ERA, 601 saves, 1.058 WHIP and again a 3.69 K/BB.  Another number that jumps out off his stats page is his 7.0 H/9.  I have looked at almost every great pitcher's stat sheet for their careers and only the extreme top 1% of pitchers have a H/9 lower than 7.3.  He also put up an extremely high K/9 of 9.4 for his career.

Hoffman will easily go into the Hall of Fame, and it should be in 2016, his first year of eligibility.  As I said before, I view closers all time as Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and "some other guys".  None of those other guys are close.  

Just because Rivera is clearly the best closer of all time, doesn't mean we should just forget about Hoffman.  Trevor Hoffman is right there with Rivera.  It should be noted that it took Rivera more appearances and more innings to reach 600 saves than Hoffman, and that Hoffman did it for a team that won far less games over that stretch.

Hoffman's career speaks for itself.  If you didn't before, you should now believe that Hoffman is clearly the second best closer of all time.  You should know that his change up was the best of all time.  You should understand that at least himself and Rivera should be considered real pitchers and not 'specialists.'

Finally, you should understand that his career was one of the best of any player who ever played the game.  I'll leave you with a video of Hoffman earning his 479th save at Petco Park on 9/24/2006 to become the then all time career saves leader, passing Lee Smith as he locked down a 2-1 victory over the Pirates.

Should The Sox Bring Mark Back?

Imagine this starting rotation next season: Floyd, Danks, Peavy, Humber, Stewart.  What do you notice?  Yes, No Mark Buehrle.  I don't know how to feel about that.

On the one hand, Mark Buehrle's departure will save the team's payroll.  Mark will probably still command a decent paycheck to sign.  On the other hand, the Sox will lose one of the best players they have ever had in franchise history.  This is a guy who has pitched 200 innings every year since 2001, is a four time All Star, a two time Gold Glove winner and a World Series champion.  Oh and it doesn't hurt that he has a perfect game and no hitter under his belt.

I read an interesting article the other day on baseball-reference.com which pointed out every starting pitcher since 1901 who posted 4+ seasons of 30+ starts with an ERA+ of 110+ before the age of 27.  Mark Buehrle made this short list of just 28 pitchers.  That really tells you how special he was from 2001-2005(5 seasons).

On the converse, you can look at his last five seasons and say that he really fell down the ladder a bit.  Over his last five seasons, he's 74-65 with a 4.02 ERA, averaging 206 IP per season.  In the American League, these can be looked at as decent numbers, but disappointing considering his previous numbers.  This season, Mark's numbers have been much better.

Buehrle posted a respectable stretch this season from April 27th to August 11th with the following lines: 9-3, 2.46 ERA, 70/24 K/BB, and a 1.15 WHIP over 124.1 IP.  All of this was during a stretch when the White Sox basically went .500 at 48-46.  I believe Mark is pitching well because it is a contract year, and he wants people to know he still has something left.

It is hard to imagine the White Sox without Mark Buehrle, but it may be for the best.  The team can get younger, save money and has a viable rotation going forward into the future.  I may just be being selfish, but I really want the Sox to re-sign Mark.  Mark means more to me than just a pitcher who can help the Sox.  I met my wife because of Mark(It's a really long story) and the #56 has come up several times with special meanings for us.

My email address is Mark Buehrle.  I have a photo of Mark Buehrle hanging on my wall.  I have a Mark Buehrle Build-A-Bear.  I have 72 Mark Buehrle baseball cards.  I have a Mark Buehrle perfect game t-shirt.  You see, he means more to me than just the average player I like.  I know all things have to come to an end, so if this is really it, I need to focus on his next few starts because they could be his last with the Sox.

If Mark does leave, I hope he doesn't retire.  I want to still be able to watch him pitch, even for another team.  He would most likely want to sign with the Cardinals if they would have him.  He has expressed his desire to pitch for them before he retires.  If he does retire, he has had a great career and I wish him all the best.  I hope if he does pitch somewhere else, he has some success, because he has a chance to get himself into that fringe Hall Of Fame category.

He would go out either way as my pick as the second best pitcher in White Sox history(Bleacher Report says he IS the best), behind only Ed Walsh.  He has started on Opening Day nine times in his career.  It would be hard to see someone else up on the hill for Opening Day 2012, I guess I will just have to deal with it and be happy with what I did get to see out of him during his time with the Sox.

I remember when he hit that home run. I remember when he made "The Play".  I remember when he got thrown out by Jo(k)e West.  I remember where I was when he threw both of his no hitters.  I remember when he got a save in Game 3 of the World Series.  I remember when I went to a Sox @ Royals game in 2006 and Mark pitched and won.  I remember when he started the All Star Game.  I remember when I first saw that ridiculous truck he owns.  I remember when he retired 45 batters in a row to set a ML record.  I hope I get a few more memories in the future.

Cry Me Some Rios Adam Dunn

It's been bad.  It's been worse.  Now it's finished.  Adam Dunn has been officially benched, and will see little playing time in September according to Ozzie Guillen (If you actually believe him).  So far, he has actually been true to his word.  Dunn only has 5 at bats since August 24th, a span of six games.  In those 5 at bats, he struck out 4 times and did not reach base in the miraculous at bat where he made contact.

Similarly, Alex Rios(Rivers in Spanish, hence the article title) is also having an absolutely atrocious year.  At times it has appeared as if he isn't even trying out there.  He can make the plays in CF, but he's having so much trouble at the plate, that it is almost becoming worse than the Brian Anderson situation.  Definitely worse when you think about the $12 million he's being paid.

Other players on the Sox have had pretty unproductive seasons this year such as Gordon Beckham and Brent Morel, but Alex Rios and Adam Dunn's statistics really speak for themselves as having a much more negative impact on the team this season.  Adam is batting .163 in 436 plate appearances, while Alex Rios is batting .214 in 488 plate appearances.  They would both need to reach 502 plate appearances to qualify for the batting title.  Rios is dangerously close, while the benching of Dunn could leave him just short of having the worst qualifying batting average since 1909.

Another way to look at Tweedledum and Tweedledee's tandem horrible seasons is to look at OPS.  Both guys play positions where OPS becomes a factor in my opinion.  We know based on the basic statistics that their OPS' must be pretty low on the list.  How low?  Try dead last.  Yes, that's right.  Among qualifying batters to this point according to MLB.com, Adam Dunn(149th) and Alex Rios(150th) rank second to last and dead last in OPS.  They hold .577 and .570 respectively.

You could also look at their OPS+.  Baseball-Reference wrote an article recently about the struggles of Jayson Werth being historically bad in the OPS+ department.  He is likely going to join a historically bad list of right fielders to qualify for the batting title with OPS+ under 100.  He stands at 98.  To compare Dunn and Rios, they stand at 58 and 54.  Yikes.

Despite the much higher batting average, Rios actually has an OBP 46 points lower than Adam Dunn's .289.  How is that even possible?  It could be argued that Rios is actually having the worse season!  Despite having more hits than Dunn, he has nothing to show for it.  This just means he doesn't hit when it counts, but it is not like Dunn has either this year.

Unsurprisingly, they both have negative WARs(Wins Above Replacement), but the real tale of the tape are their other "Above Replacement" statistics.  Dunn, who has put up 6 seasons of RAR(Runs Above Replacement) of over 25, has a -24 RAR this season.  Rios has a -13 RAR.  Runs win ball games folks.

Adam Dunn was well on his way to setting the MLB record for single season strikeouts by a batter.  However, with his benching, he will most likely not reach the 225 mark.  He sits right now at 157 strike outs on the year, which amazingly doesn't lead MLB.  Adam Dunn has walked 62 times and still doesn't have an OBP over .300.

Adam Dunn was signed to hit 40 home runs with 100 RBI.  He currently stands at 40; 40 RBI that is.  He has only hit 11 home runs and was recently passed by teammate Brent Lillibridge(13 HR in just 205 PA).  It can't get much more embarrassing than this can it?  Yes, it can.  Juan freaking Pierre has more RBI than Adam Dunn, having driven in 41 runs this year.  Un-frickin'-believable.

Neither of these guys is worthy to carry Paul Konerko's jock strap this year.  Konerko is basically in the Top 10 or Top 5 at almost every offensive statistical category that baseball-reference.com keeps track of on their site.  Here's a link:  http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2011-batting-leaders.shtml  Neither of these guys should currently be in a Major League lineup, let alone hitting cleanup.  Ozzie continues to jumble his lineup card, and inexplicably, Rios continues to hit near cleanup when he should at best be hitting 9th.

The best solution in my view to get the White Sox through the end of the season would be to play Lillibridge/De Aza in CF and Lillibridge/Viciedo at First and Konerko/Viciedo at DH.  This would give us different lineup possibilities that don't include Rios or Dunn.  Give them a month off to think about how much they suck and see if they really want to work hard to improve or not and earn their playing time back.  

I believe Adam Dunn genuinely cares about his poor performance, and feels bad about letting the White Sox and their fans down.  He will work hard this offseason on his swing.  With Rios, I'm not always sure he cares.  This is the same guy who told a fan "Who gives a [profanity]!" when told he should be lucky someone (whom he blew off) wanted his autograph after an 0-5 game a few years back.  You can watch that exchange here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mt9hRCthV8E

Based on their careers, Dunn has a much better chance of bouncing back next year than Alex Rios.  While Rios has shown he can be a productive player, he has not shown it often enough to convince me that he could ever be a solid full-time outfielder.  Adam Dunn has shown everyone in the past that he is capable of putting up numbers that can lead a team.  I hope Dunn figures it out next year.  As for Rios, he basically has an untradable contract, which means we're stuck with this mistake for a little while longer.  Oh and my last two cents?  KW should be fired for this.