How David Freese Arrived

The 2011 World Series will have to go down as one of the best all time.  It didn't always have that kind of appeal as the World Series was expected to challenge for worst ratings ever for Game 1.  However, it was eventually tallied at 14 million viewers, which is fairly good.  I am sure by Game 7 it had many more viewers when the ratings reports come out.

Everyone knows the story of the Cardinals' incredible comeback in the regular season just to make the post season.  They were down 10 1/2 games in the Wild Card on August 25th and are now World Series champions.  That is a great story, but the story of David Freese getting to this point is pretty interesting as well.

David Freese was asked if he ever thought he could be World Series MVP if he was asked in the past and he said "zero percent chance."  So how'd he get here?  Well you have to go back and see how the 2006 first-year player draft panned out.

That year the Red Sox' draft overseer was Jason McLeod.  At the time of the draft, David Freese was a fifth-year senior out of South Alabama University.  McLeod thought this meant, according to draft rules, that he could sign Freese before the draft.  MLB however, nixed the deal that included $90,000 signing bonus.  So McLeod planned to draft Freese in the seventh round.

As the draft went into the sixth round, McLeod was reminded that he was to take Freese in the next round by a draft aide.  When the seventh round came about, McLeod thought he could take a chance, selecting another player who had a slightly higher scouting report.  He was sure Freese would still be there in the ninth round.

The ninth round came, and Freese was still there.  However, a few picks before the Red Sox, he was selected by the San Diego Padres, 273rd overall.  Freese was really upset, even more so because his signing bonus from SD was meager compared to the Sawx deal.  McLeod was stunned, and had no answers for what had transpired.*

Freese spent two very productive seasons in the Padres minor league system.  After the 2007 season, he was traded straight-up for Jim Edmonds to the St. Louis Cardinals.  This must have been a dream come true for Freese, as he grew up rooting for them.  He was immediately promoted to Triple-A Memphis and spent 2008 putting up .306/26/91 with a .910 OPS.  He has split 2009-2011 between the Majors and Minors, getting into 97 games with the Cardinals this season.  Everywhere he has played, he has been a successful hitter.  So multiple teams knew he had solid value, although it seems like in the 2007 trade that the Padres may have seriously undervalued him.

David Freese didn't waste time becoming great this postseason.  He got off to an ok start, .278/1/5 in the NLDS.  Then he went white-hot in the NLCS hitting .545/3/9 with a 1.091 OPS, and was named NLCS-MVP for his effort.  He didn't cool off a bit in the World Series.

In Game 1, Freese hit a double and was driven in by Allen Craig.  In Game 2, Freese hit a single in the 7th inning and was driven in for the go-ahead run to break the scoreless tie.  In Game 3, Freese had two hits, one a double, and two RBI in the 16-7 Cardinal rout.  In Game 4, he failed to reach base.  In Game 5, he went 1-4.

Enter Game 6.  The Cardinals had their backs to the wall, down three games to two.  At least they were at home.  Freese entered having cooled off the last two games.  He struck out in his first at bat.  In his second at bat, he reached on a fielder's choice.  He walked in his third at bat in the sixth to load the bases.  Molina walked after him, plating the game-tying run.  Then the game got crazy.

The Rangers scored three times in the top of the 7th to take a commanding 7-4 lead.  It didn't look good, but the Cardinals and Freese never gave in.  Allen Craig homered in the bottom of the 8th to make it 7-5.  This set up a ninth inning that would require the Cards to score at least two runs to save their season.

The Cardinals entered the 9th having to face one of the best closers in MLB in Neftali Feliz.  Theriot began the inning with a strikeout.  Pujols did his job, doubling.  Berkman walked.  Allen Craig, who had some big hits in the series, struck out looking.  Up next, David Freese.

Freese quickly got himself into a 1-2 count.  Down to their last strike in the Series, Freese connected on the next pitch, sending a rocket out to right field which eluded Cruz' glove.  It went off the wall and after it was corralled and thrown in, Freese found himself on third base with the 2-strike, 2-out, 2-RBI triple to tie the game at 7.  As improbable as that was, it would get crazier.

Andrus singled with one out in the top of the 10th.  Josh Hamilton then proceeded to get the big hit for his team with a 2-run HR to make the game 9-7.  In the bottom of the inning, the Cardinals, down to their last strike again, rallied to score the two runs necessary to keep the game going.  After the Rangers failed to score in the top of the 11th, the first batter up in the bottom of the 11th inning was David Freese.

Mark Lowe came in to pitch the 11th and quickly gave Freese a 3-0 count.  After Freese took a strike on the fourth pitch, he fouled off a pitch to get to a 3-2 count.  On the sixth pitch of the at bat, he connected on a long drive to center field.  It had the distance as it landed in the grass beyond the fence and a fan dove on it.  One of the best games that I have personally ever seen was made possible by the huge at bats of David Freese late in the game.

Freese was also solid in Game 7, doubling in two runs and drawing two walks, one of which was intentional.  He had been so great, he had actually forced the Rangers to intentionally walk him in an at bat, which would have seemed unheard of to him previously.  Freese had earned that respect.

Freese set records in the postseason with 21 RBI and 25 hits.  He finished with a postseason line of .397/5/21 and a ridiculous 1.258 OPS.  For all of this, he was named World Series MVP.  He is just the sixth player to be named LCS MVP and World Series MVP.  Not bad for the kid who was supposed to be a Red Sawk if not for a random series of events that brought him eventually to his favorite childhood team and an improbable World Series run.

*This draft story was gathered from the InsideThePadres blog post "Freeeeese" (http://insidethepadres.blogspot.com/2011/10/freeeeese.html)

Other information for this post was gathered from mlb.com and baseball-reference.com.

2011 PRS% Regular Season Stats

Earlier in the season, I was prompted by Brendan Bowes to create a statistic to solve a very basic problem: How often do teams plate their baserunners?  At what percentage does a team's baserunners actually come around to score?  I looked at stat sheets and came up with Potential Runs Scored Percentage(PRS%).  The formula is pretty basic: Runs-HR/OBP(PA)-HR.  Home runs are subtracted because we're only concerned with the percentage of baserunners who scored.

Well, you can view the April results  HERE.  It gave clues as to how important hitting w/RISP and scoring runs really is.  Below, I have created a chart that details the PRS% for each team for the entire regular season's results.

* - Denotes team made postseason play

So as you can see, plating the runners who get on base is essential to winning games.  This is not a revelation to any baseball fan, but the chart shows how it can be the difference between going to the post season and watching it on TV.  Notice that only one team who finished in the bottom 15 in PRS% made the post season, and only because the Red Sox choked badly.

There are some quirks with the chart as well.  For example, St. Louis plated more of their base runners than Milwaukee, but Milwaukee won the NL Central by six games.  Also you can note that Boston had that epic collapse and lost the division to the Yankees and the Wild Card to Tampa.  With Tampa, Boston had a +.035 PRS% over them.  Then there were teams who did great in this category, and did not make the post season such as the Blue Jays, the Royals, the Indians and the Mets.

If you look at the AL, the NL and MLB average PRS%'s, they work out this way: AL - .307, NL - .287, and MLB obviously in the middle at .297.  In the April chart, the White Sox were last in the AL at .264, but moved up as the season went on but not by much.  The White Sox did a poor job all the way around this year at the plate.  This number really just reflects how poorly they did, in a clear way.  Nobody other than Konerko had 80 RBI and when Juan Pierre (50) is fourth on your team in RBI, you know that you have a serious problem hitting w/RISP.

Now look at the Cardinals and Texas World Series.  How important was PRS% in Game 5?  Cardinals had second and third in consecutive innings late in the game and failed to score.  Pujols was IBB'd three times and the Cards didn't take advantage of having the base runner, since he never scored a run last night.  Holliday struggled, leaving five men on base.  Freese was also guilty, leaving five also.  Punto left four.  The Cardinals left 22 on base.  The Rangers weren't much better but got the hits when it counted, even if due to Tony LaRussa's bullpen mishap.  

So looking at the PRS% for just Game 5, the Cardinals were .109 and the Rangers plated .181.  If the Cards don't plate their runners, they can't expect to win.  If the Rangers give them free runners, they have to score them plain and simple.  Coming into the series, every commentator and internet poster I saw/read said that the Rangers would simply homer their way to victory.  However, it has clearly become about plating the runners who reach base.  Oh and intentionally walking Pujols so he can't kill the Rangers, which kind of made me angry last night.  Everything's bigger in Texas, except their balls apparently.

My Thoughts On 3 Recent MLB Stories

So I haven't written a lot lately, so I am taking a look at a few of the more prominent stories that have emerged in baseball over the last few weeks and giving my thoughts.

Obviously the biggest White Sox story was the hiring of Robin Ventura as manager.  I absolutely love the move.  It gives us a young guy who can better relate to this young crop of talent we're going to go with in the near future.  Robin spent half of the 2011 season working as special assistant to the director of player development Buddy Bell.  He spent much of that time researching the entire White Sox minor league system, and learning about all the different players we have in our system.

Robin is an organization guy.  He's the second manager in a row(not counting Don Cooper), who is a former White Sox player.  He was already working in player development and he doesn't have experience so he doesn't command a high dollar value.  He is a quieter guy, so he probably won't butt heads with KW on too many issues with the club.  I don't think that he won't have that fire to rally the troops when they need it though, because I believe he will be very passionate.

I don't quite understand why people disliked this move.  Certainly he had no managerial experience, but who cares?  You have to get it somewhere.  People are crying that we did not hire Sandy Alomar Jr or Dave Martinez, but neither of them had experience as a manager either.  KW said Robin was the guy almost from the get-go.  I'm behind him 100%.

People are also upset about the choices to fill the other vacated coaching positions.  I don't have a problem with the hire of Mark Parent.  He has managed three different levels of the minors for the Phillies organization since 2005, and had success.  I like the hiring of Joe McEwing as third base coach.  It might seem like a minor coaching position, but it can be crucially important in big moments.  Joe was very popular during his playing career, especially in St. Louis.  You can read about it all here on his Wikipedia page.  I am sure whoever is named hitting coach will also be a fine choice.  Hey, it can't get any worse than Greg Walker can it?

Another story that seems to have built steam in the sports world recently are stories that both White Sox and Red Sox players are basically partying in the clubhouse during games.  The Red Sox stories seem like stories of various starting pitchers just not caring what goes on in active games; eating chicken, playing video games and drinking are the stories coming out of Boston.  However, with the Chi-Sox story, it seems to actually be about caring.

Hey, I'm just trying to rally the troops here...

AJ Pierzynski said in an interview that various Sox players were drinking during games.  He called them "rally beers".  He also said that nobody was drinking to get drunk and that the beer was used as a pick-me-up for really long games or when players were getting tired.  He said in more than a few instances, it worked for him at least.  People are basically crucifying this story in the media and I can't figure out why.  I say it's a lot better than stupid "rally hats", the "rally monkey" or those stupid thunder sticks. (Although I do not drink, I don't do the hat thing either)

To make this a big deal is to say that you really believed baseball players were absolutely flawless people.  That's ignorant.  Throughout the history of baseball, players have drank.  The most famous drunks are probably Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle.  Babe Ruth was said to come to the park drunk, to play drunk and to get wasted after games or even between games of a double header.  Think about that in a historical context:  Babe Ruth was getting wasted in 1925.  What was going on in 1925?  Prohibition.  So the Babe was breaking the law.  Nobody is breaking laws today by drinking a beer if they are over the age of 21.  Hey if the idiot fans can drink in the stands, why not the idiot players?

The Chi-Sox story is nothing like the Red Sox story.  They are being compared to each other, but the Red Sox players clearly just didn't care about their team when they weren't pitching, and were showing a complete lack of respect for their organization and their fans by doing what they were doing.  As AJ stated, the Sox players were trying to get a pick-me-up for long games.  What's wrong with that?  It's not like they were popping pills like 80% of the league were doing in the 1960's-1990's.

"I threw a no hitter on LSD sucka!"

Doc Ellis threw a no hitter on LSD.  I read an interview with Darryl Strawberry where he said he doesn't remember playing a game in the 80's without speed pills.  He also went on to say that he remembers picking a girl out of the stands and inviting her into the clubhouse for sex, between innings of a game.  So it's not like having a sip of beer is the worst thing that has ever taken place in a baseball clubhouse.  This story just needs to go away; it's really grasping at straws to say it is such an awful thing that occurred, but that's what the media does best.  They stir up controversy where there is none, and then beat you over the head with it.

Finally, the Astros are definitely moving to the AL.  This puts us in the awkward position of having 15 teams in each league.  This means that there are only two scenarios for the regular season schedule now: either two teams will continuously be playing an interleague series all year long, or we will have two teams always off each day.  I don't like this move at all.  I like the even numbers.  Adding teams to MLB is out of the question, subtracting or "contracting" teams will also probably never pass.

This leaves us with a really weird and messed up way of doing things going forward.  Thanks a lot Disastros for putting us here.  Will this be more fair, 15 team leagues and six five-team divisions?  Sure.  This will certainly drive the interleague detractors crazy.  With this move, this means Interleague will not be eliminated, ever.  Only if there is a change at some point that fixes this problem, which doesn't really seem possible without more realignment of some kind.

We'll have to see what happens here but I am just not feeling it.  Maybe it will grow on me.  I don't hate the Astros, and it will be fine to have them in the American League.  I guess since I don't really get a say, I should just sit back and see how it goes.  It will be interesting to see how they go about scheduling.  One problem I see right now is the end of the season.  Lets say the Cardinals lead the Brewers by one game in the NL Central.  The Cardinals last series of the year is against the Reds.  The Brewers last series of the year is against the Yankees.  How would that be fair; that an AL team can knock a NL team out of the postseason (or vice-versa) in the last series of the year?  Is this issue going to be addressed?

Is Adrian Gonzalez A Curse?

Adrian Gonzalez in my opinion is one of the top five hitters in MLB today.  There's no question that he is supremely talented and can be counted on to have a big year every year for any club.  Everyone who had a chance to land him would at least entertain the thought; but is he cursed?

Before you think I'm writing some stupid Chris Chase-type Yahoo article here (which are full of pointless nonsense that nobody cares about), I am simply asking the question and presenting the evidence.  Anyone who has followed his teams the last two years would say that at the very least, it's a bad coincidence.

Let's start in 2010.  The Padres were the surprise team of the NL, and on August 25th they had a 6.5 game lead in the NL West.  After that date, the Fathers lost 10 straight games, but remained one game up for first place.  However, they only played .500 baseball the rest of the way (14-13) and saw themselves out of a post season berth. Combined, their collapse from August 26th-October 3rd occurred by a record of 14-23.

This was generally accepted as a pretty bad collapse, but most people wrote it off because the Padres weren't supposed to compete last year in the first place.  Their manager Bud Black was still given NL Manager Of The Year.  From August 26th-October 3rd, Adrian Gonzalez hit .296 with 5 HR and 19 RBI, so he was doing what he could.  His Win Probability Added was just -0.02 over that span.

Jump to 2011.  The Red Sox came into the year having signed Adrian Gonzalez and looking to not only win the AL East, but to win it all.  Most sports outlets picked the Red Sox to win the most games in the regular season and to win the title this year.  The Red Sox started off poorly but really came on strong from May-August, staying in either the AL East lead or the Wild Card lead the entire summer.

Then the Red Sox hit September 1st.  From September 1st to the end of the year, the Red Sox saw it all fall apart in one of the most epic collapses in baseball history.  During that span, the Sox went 7-19 and saw themselves fall not only out of first place in the AL East but out of the Wild Card altogether to the Tampa Bay Rays, who were all but dead on September 1st.  This one was so bad, it got the manager Terry Francona fired.

During that span of games, Adrian Gonzalez batted .318 with 4 HR and 14 RBI.  His WPA was actually positive at +0.770.  I am in no way trying to say that there is a curse, or that it is Adrian's fault.  It clearly is not as he played very well both of those years during his teams' collapses.  It's just one of those sports oddities, and it is most likely purely coincidental that in back-to-back seasons for two different teams, a guy would be subjected to this kind of heart breaking situation.

Adrian Gonzalez is one of the most consistent players in the game.  Over the last five seasons, he has averaged .295/33/107 with a .907 OPS.  He has only made one playoff appearance in his entire career despite these top numbers.  In that series in 2006 vs the eventual WS Champion Cardinals, he batted .357 but plated no one.  So he has a history of batting well for teams that don't play well.  He is one of my favorite players in MLB, and I hope he is not a curse.  If he is, one thing is for sure:  It is not because of his performance.