Adrian Gonzalez in my opinion is one of the top five hitters in MLB today. There's no question that he is supremely talented and can be counted on to have a big year every year for any club. Everyone who had a chance to land him would at least entertain the thought; but is he cursed?
Before you think I'm writing some stupid Chris Chase-type Yahoo article here (which are full of pointless nonsense that nobody cares about), I am simply asking the question and presenting the evidence. Anyone who has followed his teams the last two years would say that at the very least, it's a bad coincidence.
Let's start in 2010. The Padres were the surprise team of the NL, and on August 25th they had a 6.5 game lead in the NL West. After that date, the Fathers lost 10 straight games, but remained one game up for first place. However, they only played .500 baseball the rest of the way (14-13) and saw themselves out of a post season berth. Combined, their collapse from August 26th-October 3rd occurred by a record of 14-23.
This was generally accepted as a pretty bad collapse, but most people wrote it off because the Padres weren't supposed to compete last year in the first place. Their manager Bud Black was still given NL Manager Of The Year. From August 26th-October 3rd, Adrian Gonzalez hit .296 with 5 HR and 19 RBI, so he was doing what he could. His Win Probability Added was just -0.02 over that span.
Jump to 2011. The Red Sox came into the year having signed Adrian Gonzalez and looking to not only win the AL East, but to win it all. Most sports outlets picked the Red Sox to win the most games in the regular season and to win the title this year. The Red Sox started off poorly but really came on strong from May-August, staying in either the AL East lead or the Wild Card lead the entire summer.
Then the Red Sox hit September 1st. From September 1st to the end of the year, the Red Sox saw it all fall apart in one of the most epic collapses in baseball history. During that span, the Sox went 7-19 and saw themselves fall not only out of first place in the AL East but out of the Wild Card altogether to the Tampa Bay Rays, who were all but dead on September 1st. This one was so bad, it got the manager Terry Francona fired.
During that span of games, Adrian Gonzalez batted .318 with 4 HR and 14 RBI. His WPA was actually positive at +0.770. I am in no way trying to say that there is a curse, or that it is Adrian's fault. It clearly is not as he played very well both of those years during his teams' collapses. It's just one of those sports oddities, and it is most likely purely coincidental that in back-to-back seasons for two different teams, a guy would be subjected to this kind of heart breaking situation.
Adrian Gonzalez is one of the most consistent players in the game. Over the last five seasons, he has averaged .295/33/107 with a .907 OPS. He has only made one playoff appearance in his entire career despite these top numbers. In that series in 2006 vs the eventual WS Champion Cardinals, he batted .357 but plated no one. So he has a history of batting well for teams that don't play well. He is one of my favorite players in MLB, and I hope he is not a curse. If he is, one thing is for sure: It is not because of his performance.
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