Observations From A First Place First Half

First place at the All Star Break; we all would have signed up for that if we were told that was a choice on April 1st.  I know I would have.  It has been up and down this year: a lack-luster April, an amazing stretch in May, and consistency in June/July.  The team has really come on strong in the last 13 games also, and by pure coincidence these are the 13 games Kevin Youkilis has been with the White Sox.  Go figure, right? (sarcasm)

This team has been fun to watch lately.  We have seen them play harder, hit better, field better, pitch better and win.  Most recently they split with the Yankees, swept the unswept-all-season Rangers, and win 2 of 3 vs the Blue Jays to close out the first half three games ahead and 47-38 overall.  There's a lot of factors involved, and that's what has been so good about it all.

It's not just one player.  It's been many players stepping up their games.  Early on, they depended on a few guys to carry the load; Konerko, Dunn and Sale.  Now it's been more people getting involved in the process.

The White Sox traded Zach Stewart and Brent Lillibridge for Kevin Youkilis, and he has given the Sox a real third baseman who can field and hit.  In 13 games with the White Sox, Youkilis' numbers are (.347/3/14 w/.990 OPS and 9 runs scored).  He's also playing stellar defense, making Baseball Tonight's Web Gems multiple times and has three game-winning hits.  Youk has as many RBI (14) in 55 plate appearances with the White Sox, as he did in 165 plate appearances with the Red Sox this season.  The White Sox are 9-4 over those games.

Chris Sale, Jake Peavy and Paul Konerko have been steady.  Alex Rios has come alive, finding his bat again.  Reed has gotten it done as the rookie closer.  Quintana has been an excellent surprise.  Beckham and Alexei have been hitting, finally.  I hope the break doesn't kill momentum this team has built up.

Something to look at for the success of this team is the much better rate that the team is plating base runners this year.  Last year, I created a statistic I called Potential Runs Scored % (PRS%) to accurately portray the percentage of baserunners a team has that actually score runs.  Last year, the White Sox plated just 27.6% of their base runners.  This was 25th in MLB.  In the first half this year, the White Sox have plated 32.3% of their base runners.  Compared to last year's final PRS% for all teams, the Sox current PRS% would have ranked 4th in MLB.  Scoring runners is kind of a big deal in winning games.

For most teams, staring at 16 of 19 on the road to start the second half would be an insurmountable gauntlet.  Not for the White Sox.  The team has gone 23-16 on the road this year, which is a higher winning percentage than at home.  This team is gritty and built for road trips.  I fully believe in them to go 10-6, 11-5 on this road trip, and the games certainly don't get any easier from there.  

The Tigers are coming on lately, and I don't think anybody ever expected them to stay out of it all year.  I don't want to count out the Indians at this point.  They are clearly playing consistent baseball.  They could have fallen 6 or 7 games back during the White Sox recent stretch, but stayed right with them.  I am more worried about the Tigers than the Indians but you never know how the ball will roll in the second half.  We'll just have to see.

It was good to see Robin Ventura get thrown out of a game for arguing the strike zone inconsistencies the last day of the first half.  He is a laid back manager and that's great, but when it gets that bad, he needs to let the umpiring staff know that it's garbage.  He officially graduated from "Rookie Manager School" today and I'm proud of him.  Don't sit back and let our team get ripped off by a ramrodding umpire.  Keep up the good work Robin, he's been one of the best and most important pieces of this club this year.  The new attitude because of him alone is worth some wins no doubt.

The staff the team put together has also been doing a great job. Chris Rongey said often until this year that changing the hitting coach would do absolutely nothing.  Well that's a lie, because Jeff Manto has been a miracle worker, getting a lot of people to hit better than they have in the past for this club.  Joe McEwing has done a solid job at third base, sending guys at just the right clip to have a high success rate of scoring runs.  Mark Parent hasn't done anything controversial as bench coach.  It's been a solid staff so far.

This team should be able to do is win more than 20 games in the second half.  If they do, they will prove Sports Illustrated wrong, who said they were a 67-95 team this year.  Here's their prediction page with a video explanation on why (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/baseball/mlb/03/28/si.mlb.2012.preview/index.html). I don't just want to prove them and everyone else wrong, I want the team to make the post season and win the World Series, obviously.  Wanting less would be wanting to fail, and I don't want this team to fail.

One final note is what will happen to Gavin Floyd?   His season has been a set of three different streaks: from April 8th to May 11th he was 3-3 with a 2.53 ERA; from May 16th to June 14th he was 1-4 with a 10.38 ERA. Now since June 20th he's 3-1 with a 1.36 ERA.  What is going to happen with Gavin Floyd in the second half?  Will he even be on the White Sox?  I think if KW doesn't trade him, he's going to be really important as that fourth piece of the rotation that needs to win.  He might be traded though and I would hope the Sox could get a good return.  Either way, Gavin Floyd is going to have a lot to do with success in the second half.

First Half Sox MVP: Chris Sale (10-2, 2.19 ERA, 0.95 WHIP)

Ratings Of Lineup Guys (Offense Only)

Regulars

AJ Pierzynski: B

Paul Konerko: A

Gordon Beckham: D+

Alexei Ramirez: C

Kevin Youkilis: A+

Dayan Viciedo: B-

Alejandro De Aza: B+

Alex Rios: A

Adam Dunn: B-

Bench

Jordan Danks: A

Eduardo Escobar: D
Orlando Hudson: D

Brent Morel: D-

Kosuke Fukudome: F

Tyler Flowers: F

Second Half Predictions

I think in the second half, the Sox will continue to contend.  I will stick by my original prediction before the season that this team will win 87-90 games.  Will it be enough?  Who knows.  It may not.  I hope this isn't a repeat of 2004 when the Sox competed to the end of July, then got hammered in August and September and lost the division by about 10 games.  

I think if they compete, it will be scoring runs behind solid pitching.  I think if they don't compete from here on out, it will be because the bats cool off and the young pitchers (Sale, Quintana, Nate Jones, Addison Reed) would not be able to keep it up for the whole year.  There will be ups and downs, and my only prediction is that they will get to those win totals, hopefully while competing.

My Favorite Moments

- Konerko hit #400

- Philip Humber threw a perfecto

- Kevin Youkilis trade/playing well

- Sweeping the Rangers/Winning 19-2 in the first game

- Hawk abusing Mark Wegner
- Viciedo 3-run HR in 9th beats Yankees
- Viciedo's 7th inning diving catch on April 13th
- Winning 9 games in a row(May 23-June 1)

- Eduardo Escobar's 10th inning game winning hit over the Brew Crew
- When Hawk said "Sacks packed with Seamen" LOL

- #TakeJake: Jake making the AS Team to replace injured Cock Jockey Wilson

- Trading Zach Stewart, DFA-ing Will Ohman