Monday, December 13, 2010

Cliff Lee With Texas: Better For Baseball??


Cliff Lee has serious offers from both the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees.  While figures have not been released, it is generally assumed that the Yankees offer is just a little bit higher.  It should be somewhere around 7 years/$160 million.  The Rangers have the argument of playing close to Cliff Lee's home state of Arkansas, and having no state income tax.  However, Cliff Lee stated that he will remain a resident of Arkansas so the income tax incentive has no bearing on his decision.

With the Nationals reportedly out of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, there remains just the Yankees, Rangers and if you believe the reports, a mystery third team.  However, this "mystery third team" would have had to be pointed out by now.  Cliff Lee is reportedly making his decision this week.

Cliff Lee has come a long way from just a few years back in 2007, when he was pitching so poorly that he was sent down to the minors by the Cleveland Indians.  He was booed off the mound during his last start prior to being sent down, and tipped his cap to the fans on his way into the dugout, angering them even more.  This must have been a serious wake up call for Lee, as he was not called back up until the beginning of 2008.

In 2008, he went 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 170 Ks.  He took home that year's Cy Young award.  In 2009 he was 14-13 between the Indians and Phillies, posting a respectable 3.22 ERA and 180 Ks.  In 2010, he was 13-9 with a 3.18 ERA, a MLB low 1.00 WHIP, and 185 Ks between the Mariners and Rangers.  He also had a MLB best 7 complete games.

In the post season this year, he went 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA in the ALDS and ALCS, leading the Rangers to their first ever world series.  He struggled in the World Series though, going 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.  The Rangers would still love to bring him back as he was a big part of them having their best season in team history.

This leads to the question, is it better for baseball to have the Yankees being the undisputed top team or having the Rangers be competitive?  I have heard arguments that when the Yankees are great, they sellout road stadiums and bring up MLB's total revenue.  Also, when the Yankees make the World Series, the TV ratings go through the roof.  However, I would counter-argue that the Yankees would sell out road stadiums even if they weren't the top team.  It is better for other teams to be competitive to help sell out their own stadiums for 81 games.  Do true fans of the game really care about TV ratings?  True fans of the game will watch the World Series no matter who is playing.  If MLB wants better World Series TV ratings, then contract about 10 teams from the league, so those poor markets don't even have a team to possibly ruin your ratings.  Until then, deal with it Selig.

The Yankees come to non-AL East stadiums only once or twice a season at the most.  That's just 7 games of sell out attendance.  If this non-AL East team fielded a top competitive team, they could have very nice attendance for all of their 81 home games.  That is why it would be a good thing for baseball to have the Rangers as a top competitive team.  It puts one more team on the map, causing fans to want to show up to every game, and bringing in revenue for a team that used to see lower attendance.

Winning does not always bring in fans, as is the case in Tampa.  Tampa was winning and seeing crowds of 25,000 or less.  Tampa is a special case though because I feel that more people living in Tampa are Yankees fans than Rays fans.  The Rangers play in a market area that is all their own, and their residents are mostly Rangers fans.  They have a good sized TV market extending into Oklahoma and Arkansas.  They have good ticket prices, although the World Series will surely affect the prices next season.  They have a great ballpark and oh by the way, the AL MVP Josh Hamilton as well.

In 2008, the Rangers attendance was 24,000 a game.  In 2009, they saw a rise to 27,000 a game.  In 2010, they saw a rise to 31,000 a game.  This can be directly related to the Rangers records for those three season.  In 2008, the Rangers went 79-83.  In 2009, they went 87-75.  In 2010, the Rangers went 90-72 and won the AL West.

Both the Rangers and Yankees are pressing as hard as they can for the pitcher.  Both have gone to his home in Arkansas multiple times and given him multiple offers.  Will he pick the Rangers and playing closer to his home, or the Yankees for a higher salary and playing along side his friend CC Sabathia?  I hope he picks the Rangers, not as a typical anti-Yankee rant but as a pro-"more competitive teams in MLB is a great thing" discussion.  I think he will, in the end, sign with the Rangers.  That is my guess, because I simply do not think he would have taken this long to choose the Yankees.

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