Is Jayson really "Werth" It?

In stunning news last week, Jayson Werth, a highly sought after free agent by many teams, was signed by the Washington Nationals to an eye popping 7-year/$126 million contract.  Many people are questioning the contract, which came from a team which did not appear to be a front runner in the first place.  Is Jayson really "Werth" it?

First, lets discuss the deal.  I am not sure the year by year breakdown, but it averages out to $18 million a year.  To put this number in perspective, Albert Pujols who is considered the best hitter in the league, will make $16 million next season.  Some people are also questioning the seven years of the deal.  We all remember the Nationals saying they just couldn't sign Adam Dunn for four years because it was too costly and lengthy for them.  Did the Nationals really choose Jayson Werth over Adam Dunn?  That is crazy!

Next, let's discuss what lead to this contract.  From 2002-2005, playing for the Blue Jays and Dodgers, Werth was a .245/6/26 a season player, and never played a full season.  I had Dodgers fan friends who were really glad when he left, and had called him Jayson Werthless.  When he arrived in Philadelphia, he finally saw some full time action.  From 2006-2010, he became a .282/24/75 a season player.  He began garnering a name for himself by hitting well in the post season during this time.  He hit .444 in the 2008 World Series and .417 in the 2009 World Series.  However, in 2010 he hit just .167 in the NLDS & NLCS combined.

Werth is an excellent fielder in Right.  He for his career has a .990 Fielding % and a 52% Fielded Balls To Outs %.  To put this in perspective, Ichiro Suzuki, who is considered the best RF in MLB, has a career .992 Fielding % and 53% F2O%.  So we can see that Jayson Werth's defense matches up to even the best RF in the league.

So, is Jayson "Werth" this deal?  I am going to say that he is not pretty easily.  I cannot think of a reason why a player who hit .296/27/85 and then batted .167 in the post season would be worthy of a contract of this size.  I think it is a case of his name being bigger than his statistics.  He did lead the league at doubles with 46, but I don't think that alone would lead to this contract.  Somehow, Jayson has gone from "Werthless" to "Werthy" in just a few short years.

Werth's most similar batters by statistics are listed as Brad Hawpe, Corey Hart and Curtis Granderson.  Brad Hawpe is currently an unsigned free agent.  Corey Hart signed a decent contract that will pay him $6.5 million next year, $9 million in 2012 and $10 million in 2013.  Curtis Granderson is going to make $8.25 million next season, $10 million in 2012 and has a $13 million option in 2013 with a team buy out at $2 million.  His contract would pay him $15 million in 2013 with a top 5 MVP finish in 2011 or 2012, or all star appearances in 2011 and 2012.

These are reasonable contracts for players of this batting type.  Werth's in comparison seems ridiculous.  Werth's statistics at the Nationals new park are .307/6/13 in 20 games started there.  I don't think 20 games is a good enough sample size to determine what kind of hitter he will be in up to 81 games there a season.  He will also not be facing Nationals pitching anymore when he plays there.

All the way around, this looks like a really bad deal.  This may even be the worst contract I have seen for a position player.  I think this one has a real potential to blow up in the Nationals' face.  It seems like their money would have been better spent signing back Adam Dunn for $56 or $60 million, and going after another player or two for the other $66 million left from the money they are paying Jayson Werth.

It should be stated that Jayson's agent is Scott Boras.  Scott Boras is a ruthless agent who will not settle for anything less than 110% of his player's value in contract figures/years.  He has gotten his players some of the biggest contracts in MLB history and has landed many players more money and years than they are worth.  All of that being said, this might have been Boras' best work yet.  He was able to sell Jayson Werth as a Type-A top tier player, and get him this insanely inflated contract that every other GM in the league is laughing at right now.  This is probably the only reason Jayson got anything over $60 million and four years.  Boras almost always gets his price, and this time was clearly no exception.

Fox’s Ken Rosenthal said an unnamed GM called the Werth contract "absolutely bats**t crazy!" after hearing the news. Mets new GM Sandy Alderson noted that Jason Bay's new four year/$66 million contract was reasonable compared to Werth's new contract. If and when this contract is realized as a failure, it will make Jayson almost untradeable.  Whatever Nationals GM Mike Rizzo is on, it must be some really good stuff.  The winner in all of this is of course, Carl Crawford, who is sitting around saying "I want what he's having!", a line from the all new baseball drama, 'When The Free Agent Met The Stupid GM'.  Whatever Carl Crawford gets(6-10 years, $100-$140 million), at least he'll be halfway worth it.